Military Review English Edition November-December 2015 | Page 103

ALL-VOLUNTEER FORCE

Redefining the Problem
Today, America’s military is a professional, worldclass, highly recruited, volunteer organization widely
respected by its society. Its youngest members are well
compensated relative to other Americans their age. But
the combination of the military, social, and political
factors in the strategic environment leads one to conclude that the AVF cannot survive without fundamental
redesign. Demonstrably, Congress currently has no fiscal
stomach for enlistment bonuses, nor has the president
requested them. Policy shifts by DOD (such as opening enlistment to more non-high-school graduates or
accepting more medical and moral waivers) can provide
limited help to address recruiting sufficient quantity, but
conversely may undercut quality of the force.
For the AVF’s long-term viability, the military, the
political leaders, and the American people must address a deeper underlying problem: the military cannot
satisfy its demand for increasingly qualified enlistees
due to societal factors. With obesity at 40 percent for
youths ages sixteen to twenty-four, mental- and behavioral-health medications prescribed for 34 percent
of youths ages thirteen to seventeen, and arrest rates

among U.S. youths estimated between 25.3 percent and
41.4 percent by age twenty-three, it is clear that enlistment policy adjustments and increases to compensation, benefits, and enlistment incentives are insufficient
to resolve the recruiting challenges.18 The core issue is
an increasing societal reluctance, as well as inability
for various reasons, among young potential recruits to
serve in the military.
Quantifying this problem clarifies the core issues
and offers a clearer picture of the competition for talent
among businesses, colleges, and the military. Figure
1 illustrates the AVF problem using DOD and U.S.
Army Recruiting Command data for the 4.1 million
Americans turning eighteen in 2015.19 About four
of every one hundred of these young Americans are
both qualified and willing to serve. Colleges and other
postsecondary education and training institutions, the
military, and employers vie for them; the military needs
at least one to enlist, and traditional colleges will draw at
least two of the four. Of the remaining ninety-six, twenty-five are qualified but unwilling to serve, and fifteen
are unqualified but willing. Remaining are about fifty-six
Americans who are both unwilling and unable to serve
More Qualified

Qualified but unwilling:
1,000,000 (25%)

Willing and
qualified:
160,000 (4%)
More
Willing

Less
Willing

Unwilling and unqualified:
2,240,000 (56%)

Willing but
unqualified:
600,000 (15%)

Less Qualified

Figure 1. The All-Volunteer
Force's Strategic Problem
MILITARY REVIEW  November-December 2015

97