Military Review English Edition March-April 2016 | Page 46

confluence of converging forces
The Past
is so complex, and convergence
North Korean Instability
happens so rapidly and in such
a compressed way that, in order
Central Asia
Organized Crime
Domestic Border and Internal
Turmoil
to develop strategies to meet the
Security Concerns
challenges of these occurrencMilitant Change
Afghanistan
es, extraordinary mechanisms
Relationships
Wild
Cards
become vital and necessary.
Gangs and Groups
At the point of convergence,
Resource
China’s March
Shortfalls
a variety of changes may occur
Real-World
Africa’s
that add or subtract from the
Converging
Metamorphosis
Latin
American
complexity of the contextually
Problems
Malaise
joined forces of change. When
Nuclear
Changing Markets
convergence occurs, there may be
Capable Iran
Weapons with
a tendency not to recognize the
Mass and Complex
Russian Adventurism
Interconnections
characteristics or the dynamics
Effects
of change, or not to recognize
Global
Middle Eastern Environmental
the actual fact of convergence
Israeli Conflict
The War
Change
because it may not be apparent in
Biological and
Against Terror
Chemical Change
conventional form. Thus, in order
Future Conditions
to effectively and efficiently deal
with the net effect of convergence
and its attendant synergy, we
must have a new approach to deal
Figure. Real-World Convergence
with confluence, simultaneity,
interrelationships, and especially
One of the fundamental mistakes sometimes made
with complexity, which we do not now seem to have.
by those who are confronted with an emerging condiIdeally, if we had such a mechanism—one that provided tion is to transfer the context and the characteristics of
proper assessment and understanding using appropriate
the precondition to the new condition without conpolicies, tools, and processes—the resulting contextual view
sidering or realizing the nature of the change that may
and insightful understanding of the convergence of forces
have occurred simply through the emergence process.
for change would be less complicated and would provide
A lesson may be found in nature when we consider
greater clarity and focus. Without this modified view and
the evolution of animals from their embryonic state
insight, the nature of the original condition set may be so
until they fully develop (and sometimes morph) into
overwhelming and so confusing that the idea of developing
something quite different—although the original genus,
strategies—and somehow anticipating, precluding, managspecies, or family remains the same.
ing, mitigating, controlling, and responding to changes—
The emergence of national security concerns may be
may be unachievable or even incomprehensible.
very much like this—not fully recognizable or understandable if only the base information or belief is used, especially
Emergence
when we rely on surface observation and conventional
The construct of emergence is as important and
understanding. Instead, some applied (developed) illumiimpactful as convergence. Emergence can be thought
nating knowledge, applicable history, factual information,
of as the development—out of the whole of intent,
sensible expectations, and even imagination can in most
capability, conditions, circumstances, events, and accases predict what the evolved (emerged) condition or
tions—of continued challenges or, more often, newly
circumstance will look like. This is vital to insight, foresight,
formed challenges (often with new characteristics)
and anticipatory action regarding emerging challenges. If it
that we must contend with.
looks like a tadpole now, it is probably going to be a frog.
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March-April 2016  MILITARY REVIEW