Military Review English Edition March-April 2016 - Page 46

confluence of converging forces The Past is so complex, and convergence North Korean Instability happens so rapidly and in such a compressed way that, in order Central Asia Organized Crime Domestic Border and Internal Turmoil to develop strategies to meet the Security Concerns challenges of these occurrencMilitant Change Afghanistan es, extraordinary mechanisms Relationships Wild Cards become vital and necessary. Gangs and Groups At the point of convergence, Resource China’s March Shortfalls a variety of changes may occur Real-World Africa’s that add or subtract from the Converging Metamorphosis Latin American complexity of the contextually Problems Malaise joined forces of change. When Nuclear Changing Markets convergence occurs, there may be Capable Iran Weapons with a tendency not to recognize the Mass and Complex Russian Adventurism Interconnections characteristics or the dynamics Effects of change, or not to recognize Global Middle Eastern Environmental the actual fact of convergence Israeli Conflict The War Change because it may not be apparent in Biological and Against Terror Chemical Change conventional form. Thus, in order Future Conditions to effectively and efficiently deal with the net effect of convergence and its attendant synergy, we must have a new approach to deal Figure. Real-World Convergence with confluence, simultaneity, interrelationships, and especially One of the fundamental mistakes sometimes made with complexity, which we do not now seem to have. by those who are confronted with an emerging condiIdeally, if we had such a mechanism—one that provided tion is to transfer the context and the characteristics of proper assessment and understanding using appropriate the precondition to the new condition without conpolicies, tools, and processes—the resulting contextual view sidering or realizing the nature of the change that may and insightful understanding of the convergence of forces have occurred simply through the emergence process. for change would be less complicated and would provide A lesson may be found in nature when we consider greater clarity and focus. Without this modified view and the evolution of animals from their embryonic state insight, the nature of the original condition set may be so until they fully develop (and sometimes morph) into overwhelming and so confusing that the idea of developing something quite different—although the original genus, strategies—and somehow anticipating, precluding, managspecies, or family remains the same. ing, mitigating, controlling, and responding to changes— The emergence of national security concerns may be may be unachievable or even incomprehensible. very much like this—not fully recognizable or understandable if only the base information or belief is used, especially Emergence when we rely on surface observation and conventional The construct of emergence is as important and understanding. Instead, some applied (developed) illumiimpactful as convergence. Emergence can be thought nating knowledge, applicable history, factual information, of as the development—out of the whole of intent, sensible expectations, and even imagination can in most capability, conditions, circumstances, events, and accases predict what the evolved (emerged) condition or tions—of continued challenges or, more often, newly circumstance will look like. This is vital to insight, foresight, formed challenges (often with new characteristics) and anticipatory action regarding emerging challenges. If it that we must contend with. looks like a tadpole now, it is probably going to be a frog. 44 March-April 2016  MILITARY REVIEW