Military Review English Edition March-April 2015 | Page 118

• Would empowerment of the group come at the expense of any host government entity— whether sovereign, transitional, or provisional— with which the United States has equities? How would we manage our relations with such a government entity? Does the host government have the capability and wil l to support the program, or at least not undermine it? Would the act of empowering the group be a tacit admission that some other U.S. goal for national sovereignty had failed? How would the program be reconciled with stated U.S. goals? Would the proposed program also require funds for reconstruction and civil affairs? Is the need for the program so dire that the United States is willing to work with people who may have poor human rights records and to defend the program from oversight and criticism? If the group is intended to counter al-Qaida or its affiliates, has al-Qaida misplayed its hand in some way that can be exploited? • • • • • • What are the de-escalation and transition plans in anticipation of the short-term objectives being met? What is the recovery plan in the event that the United States would supply the group with resources that may have to be accounted for later? • Conclusion The above may or may not be relevant to a given case, and the answers need not demonstrate that a proposed program look like the Anbar Awakening. Where circumstances differ with the Awakening, we can ask why—and ask how we can tailor the program to the local reality. Doing so will confront each challenge as a product of its own locale and circumstance and may determine that an Awakening-like program may or may not be suitable. However, at a minimum, appreciation for the Anbar Awakening’s context will assist the understanding of a major event in the history of recent warfare, counterterrorism, and counterinsurgency. As a result, it will likely be a subject of continued debate—and seemingly influence—in the years and decades to come. Dr. Matthew T. Penney was a member of the Center for the Study of Intelligence history staff from 2008 to 2014. He holds a B.A. and M.A. from Baylor University and a Ph.D. in history from Rice University. Dr. Penney’s areas of concentration are the Middle East, counterterrorism, and counterinsurgency. Notes 1. William Knarr, “Al-Sahawa: An Awakening in Al Qaim,” Global ECCO, CTX 3 (2)(May 2013), https://globalecco.org/ al-sahawa-an-awakening-in-al-qaim (accessed 20 November 2014). This article uses the term “Sahawa” throughout, for ease. The movement, which had existed in disparate factions for several months, coalesced into the Anbar Tribal Sheiks Council in August 2006, went public in September 2006 as the Emergency Council for the Rescue of Al Anbar, and changed its name to Sahawa al-Anbar in November 2006. In February 2007, its leaders began referring to it as Sahawa al-Iraq, a name formalized that April. 2. Some of the more notable works that deal with the Awakening include David Kilcullen, Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One (London: Oxford University Press, 2009), 115–85; Timothy S. McWilliams and Curtis P. Wheeler, eds., Al Anbar Awakening Volumes I and II, (Quantico, VA: Marine Corps University, 2009); Linda Robinson, Tell Me How this Ends: General David Petraeus and the Search for a Way out of Iraq (New York: Public Affairs, 2008). 116 3. Neil Smith and Sean MacFarland, “Anbar Awakens: The Tipping Point,” Military Review (March–April 2008): 41–52; Bing West, The Strongest Tribe: War, Politics, and the Endgame in Iraq (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2008); “Interview with Sheik Sabah,” in McWilliams and Wheeler, Volume II, 139-47. 4. Smith and MacFarland, 41-52; See also Todd Pitman, “Sunni Sheiks Join Fight vs. Insurgency,” Associated Press, 25 March 2007. 5. McWilliams and Wheeler, Volume II , 111-112, 135; Kathleen Ridolfo, “Sunni Groups Vie For Control of Western Region,” Iraq Report: February 21, 2008, Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty website, http://www.rferl.org/content/article/1347743.html (accessed 10 February 2015); Smith and MacFarland, 46-47. 6. Jim Michaels, A Chance in Hell: The Men Who Triumphed over Iraq’s Deadliest City and Turned the Tide of War (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 2010), 95-98; Rafid Fadhil Ali, “Sunni Rivalries in al-Anbar Province Threaten Iraq’s Security,” Jamestown Foundation, Terrorism Focus 5(10)(11 March 2008), http:// March-April 2015  MILITARY REVIEW