Military Review English Edition July-August 2016 | Page 47

COLOMBIA is not inherently auspicious. To be celebrated, it must do more than provide illegitimate organizations a path to unobstructed power. Tactically, some predatory actors may need incentives not to spoil the peace, but strategically, peace must reflect a commitment to higher ideals, benefiting the political system more than its most violent players. This in turn requires a common vision of the country’s future, one that can bridge ideological divides and bring warring elites together. It is questionable whether Colombia has reached this point, not least because of the uncompromisingly revolutionary ideology underpinning the FARC struggle and its duplicitous strategic approach. In El Salvador, it took a decade of conflict and fundamental political shifts to unite the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN) and the government in the quest for peace. Following the outbreak of war in 1981, the two sides met first in 1984, and again in September 1989, to discuss peace. Both times, too much distance separated the two sides, and neither felt militarily compelled to compromise. In La Palma in 1984, FMLN pointedly reminded the government that they still “maintain[ed] control of a third of a national territory (sic), ha[d] significant popular support in the cities and the countryside, maintain[ed] their own armed forces, and enjoy[ed] important support and recognition from the international community.”14 Confident, FMLN posited inclusion in the government as a precondition for peace, something that would have invalidated the elections of the previous year and the freshly penned constitution. The talks collapsed, and positions on both sides hardened. The government also did not pursue talks with much commitment. The Reagan administration was ideologically opposed to accommodating FMLN, and, regardless, the Salvadoran elite was never compelled to support the reforms needed to get FMLN off the battlefield. In part, this was rooted in an unwillingness to amend the recently altered constitution, but it related also to the U.S. and Salvadoran governments’ faith in an eventual victory. For both the White House and San Salvador, attrition was deemed preferable to change, if only to deny FMLN an opportunity to regenerate. What allowed for productive talks were various local and international developments, for example, the end of the Cold War threatened FMLN’s funds and compelled the United States to push for a negotiated MILITARY REVIEW  July-August 2016 settlement so as to extricate itself from a suddenly far less urgent conflict.15 Reacting to these shifts, FMLN in 1989 dropped its demands for transitional power sharing and integration into the army, but it still insisted that talks precede a cease-fire and that the elections, planned for later that year, be postponed to aid FMLN’s participation. The government balked, dismissing FMLN as “a small reality [that] cannot oblige the government to change the republic’s constitutional system.”16 FMLN was also not willing to yield: “We are flexible,” a spokesman said, “but they are making a mistake if they think we are negotiating from weakness.”17 In the end, it took an embarrassingly high-profile human-rights scandal by the El Salvadoran military and a failed but symbolically potent FMLN offensive into the capital, San Salvador, to make the stalemate sufficiently painful for both sides to compel compromise. FMLN had to accept that the country’s democratic parameters were immutable, and the government that constitutional reforms were necessary to depoliticize the military, reform the police, and investigate wartime abuses. Compromises such as these were possible because both sides now shared a vision of the future that was preferable to continued fighting, and therefore committed themselves to the agreements necessary for its actualization. It is questionable whether the present situation in Colombia has reached this point. Although Uribe’s Democratic Security Policy inflicted severe losses on FARC—one may speak of decimation—the government failed to translate the military advantage into unambiguous bargaining power.18 FARC therefore persists with its project, and the Santos government, having squandered its advantage, appears powerless to set the terms necessary to move forward. If anything, FARC is now empowered by Colombia’s strong security sector, as it uses the internationally resonant language of human rights and government repression to offset its profound military weakness and negotiate from a position of strength. Thus, harking back to the violent targeting of its surrogate party, the Patriotic Union, in the 1980s, FARC now insists on retaining its weapons in the peace zones that it will then control and the military will be restricted from entering. Whereas allegations of government repression certainly were fitting in earlier phases of Colombia’s conflict, and there have been 45