MetroVanIndependent.com
September 2015
7
News
Sunset in the Philippines.
Specter of strongest El Nino
looms in the Philippines
The Philippine government urged all
sectors nationwide to brace for possible
onslaught this year of what could be the
strongest El Nino phenomenon in recorded
history.
State weather agency Philippine
Atmospheric, Geophysical and
Astronomical Services Administration
(PAGASA) climatology chief Anthony
Lucero said all sectors must prepare
accordingly and use water wisely as
latest available data indicate the "strong"
drought-driving El Nino that's already in
progress in the tropical Pacific will likely
further intensify to a new record high.
"The El Nino at present can possibly
become stronger than this phenomenon's
strongest episode during the 1997-1998
period," he warned Friday on the side of a
forum in Metro Manila.
He said the conditions such as
progressive increase in Pacific sea surface
temperature indicated the scenario was
most likely to occur this year.
A study published in the Philippine
Journal of Development in 2009 cited the
1997-1998 El Nino as the strongest to affect
the country during the 20th century.
They said such El Nino was worse than
its 1982-1983 counterpart which caused
an estimated USD 13 billion in global
damages.
Philippine damage from the 1982-1983
El Nino reached some USD 450 million,
they also said.
Whether this year's "strong" El Nino
will have the same impact as its 19971998 counterpart remains to be seen, said
Lucero.
What happened during the 1997-1998 El
Nino must be a gauge in preparing for what
lies ahead, however, he noted.
Lucero expects El Nino to begin easing
in early 2016. "El Nino could last until May
or June next year," he also said.
PAGASA forecast slightly warmer-thanaverage temperature during the September
2015-February 2016 El Nino-affected
period. Slightly cooler-than-average
temperature is possible in mountainous
areas of Luzon, PAGASA also said.
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are still likely
in the country despite El Nino, Lucero also
pointed out.
He said PAGASA forecast two to four
TCs this September, two to three TCs in
October, one to two TCs in November and
zero to one TC each in December as well
as January and February 2016.
"Dry conditions will likely affect most
parts of country starting September 2015,"
he noted, however.
A rea s like ly to expe rie nce dr y
conditions next month are Metro Manila
and Luzon's Pangasinan, Bataan, Bulacan,
Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Tarlac, Cavite and
Romblon provinces; the Visayas' Capiz and
Cebu provinces as well as Mindanao's
North Cotabato, PAGASA data show.
"Dry condition is defined as two
consecutive months of below-normal
rainfall condition or 21 percent to 50
percent reduction from average rainfall,"
said PAGASA.
PAGASA also said provinces likely
to experience dry spell this September
are Batanes, Isabela, Camarines Sur,
Masbate and Sorsogon all in Luzon;
Eastern Samar, Leyte, Northern Samar,
Samar and Southern Leyte in the Visayas
as well as Mindanao's Zamboanga del
Norte, Misamis Occidental, Compostela
Valley, South Cotabato, Sarangani, Sultan
Kudarat, Agusan del Norte, Surigao del
Sur, Basilan, Maguindanao and Sulu.
"D r y spe ll is define d as thre e
consecutive months of below-normal
rainfall condition or 21 percent to 60
percent reduction from average rainfall,"
PAGASA said.
Provinces that can experience drought
this September are Luzon's Aurora,
Laguna, Quezon, Camarines Norte and
Catanduanes as well as the Visayas' Bohol,
PAGASA said. Catherine J. Teves