LANDBOU
temperatures have major impacts, not only
on the oceans, but also on global weather and
climate. Studies of the ENSO are extensive
and, as scientists point out, extremely
complex. Strong El Niño episodes have been
associated with “below rainfall years”, and
according to climatologists, we are heading
towards an El Niño phase right now.
So what does all this mean for the coming
2014/2015 fire season? Scientists tell us that
it is difficult to forecast climate during the
transition periods between El Niño and El
Niña phases. Indeed, some have even claimed
that this very transition has accounted for
last summer’s extreme rainfall. A quick look at
the SAWS rainfall figures indicates that the
rainfall measured in the Western Cape this
winter is still above the norm, albeit not as
significantly as it was in summer.
What has become apparent to climate
watchers throughout the world is that we are
experiencing more extreme weather events.
That is, winds and rainfall and temperatures
that are all well above, or below the norm.
This ties in well with the predictions made by
scientists about climate change.
The message thus is simple – expect more
“Climate is what we expect,
weather is what we get.“
of the same. The El Niño phase is associated
with higher than average temperatures, and
drought conditions are expected to prevail
over much of the continent.
Preparing for the coming fire season
By all accounts, the coming fire season will
be back to business as usual, and landowners
will do well to follow the fine example set by
institutions such as the FynbosFire Project
and various nature conservancies, and to
prepare for the fire season in advance. You
are advised to join up with your local Fire
Protection Association to ensure that you are
prepared for the fire season.
In the Western Cape, winter is normally
the time to start planning for the fire
season. This is when managers and staff
undergo training and conduct audits on their
equipment to ensure that they are prepared
for the inevitable. The fact is, there is nothing
we can do to change the weather this coming
fire season. What we can do however, is
prepare for the things that are associated with
the Cape summer.
As Mark Twain is said to have remarked,
“Climate is what we expect, weather is what
we get.”
MARKtoe! Augustus 2014 33