The AFDB Socio Economic Class Pyramid
Source Africa Development Bank 2012
Other definitions include the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics
which has identified the middle class as those who spend between
$240 to $1200 per month. Interestingly the definition of the class
could be regional or depend on a country. The New World Bank
defines a middle class as any one making between $10-50 a day.
Yet, identifying the middle class based on relative levels of
income or consumption is less appropriate for comparative cross-
country studies, since it can mask substantial differences between
the middle-class and their consumptio n capacities. At Ipsos,
we therefore opted for a definition based on income in absolute
terms and not relative to the rest of the country.
So Why this Study?
These confusing and myriad views inspired the Unilever Institute
based out of University of Cape Town and Ipsos Sub Saharan
Africa to embark on quest to redefine the Africa Middle class.
In recent times, we have seen huge investments in real estate
and Retail space in the continent south of Sahara and north of
Republic of South Africa.
Pundits have dismissed some of the buoyancy that derive from
such narrow definition. Nestle’s case as published by the popular
press wrongly attributes the change of a global strategy to the
diminishing of an Africa middle class. Ipsos and the Unilever
Institute felt compelled to demystify this phenomenon.
Our starting point was to define the demographic distinctions of
the subject of study. We isolated the unqualified dollar incomes
and lifestyles and the segment that remained became our focus
of study
Who is in? Who is out?
Africa has been described before by some as a continent rich in
natural resources. Several commentators have also cited African
politics and governance challenges as the reason why we don’t a
have a middle class. But it is important to note that Africa has
had intermittent commodity booms that have spiked economic
growth in several countries. These intermittent economic booms
have created a semblance of a middle-class with some aspects of
spending power.
We mentioned issues like the demographic dividend of the young
and urban population as a foundation for a viable middleclass. It
is estimated that about 25% of the world working population will
live in Africa in 10 years’ time.
Some have argued that despite the apparent population boom,
Africa cannot provide adequate jobs for the growing population.
Urbanization, Diaspora remi-ttances, growth forecast, Education
and Investment in infrastructure have spurred economic growth
leaving a viable middle class in its wake.
Is China a boon to the growth of the African middle class.? The
recent story of China in Africa is very chequered. China has been
accused of exploiting African natural resources to spur industrial
growth back in China. The late Michael Sata the 5th president
of Zambia easily rode to power on the promise of curbing
the Chinese influence in the Zambian economy. The west has
watched in horror as this influence has increased.
Chinese investment in Africa is modest but greatly amplified
in the building up of the Africa infrastructure. Proponents of
middle class economy have cited this as a good indication of a
growing middle class.
African countries have invested in education of their citizenry.
The golden years of Africa Education growth in modern history
has recorded very high enrolment rates. Initiatives like the Free
Primary Education and the Universal Primary have spurred the
growth of a sizeable middle class.
The Lost Decades
•Unqualified dollar
•Unquallified lifestyle
•Middle class
Source: Ipsos Africa Lions Study 2017
Silver Linings
Professor Haroon, one of the research partners in this study
observed a phenomenon which he describes as ‘Silver linings’.
Why does he call them silver linings? This is because he juxtaposes
this group against the prevailing economic conditions in most of
African countries.
Africa emerging from the lost decades looked vulnerable and
weak. The GDP growth averaged a miserable - 1.4% from 1980-
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2000. These were the heady days of the cold war and governance
and economic structures were sacrificed at the Altar of political
stability and world Geopolitics. Despite the gloom there were
some prospects of prosperity and the actual volume of African
economy grew 15%.
Decade GDP
1980-2000 -1.40%
1990-1999 -0.87%
2000-2008 -3.00%
2009-2015 -1.30%
Average GDP Growth
-1.40%
Source: World Bank 2017
Beliefs and Myths about the Middle Class
In the previous discourses some fallacious beliefs have been
cited to describe the middle class. It has been severally asserted
in previous discussions that the middle class has some good
incomes. Our study affirms that the current middle class might