Land of Hope and Technology February 2016 | Page 12

ISSUE 1

Timing, comedians
and entrepreneurs
In a talk he gave at Ted, the founder of
the Idealab incubator, Bill Gross (not to be
confused with the famous bond investor) said
that the one characteristic that seemed to
separate the successful start-up from others,
was timing. He said this mattered more than
the idea, team, business model, and funding.
He looked at companies that Idealab had
supported, including companies that went
on to be very successful and those that
failed, despite appearing to have all the key
ingredients for exceptional success. He then
applied the same examination to companies
outside of Idealab. He said timing accounted
for 42 per cent of the difference between
success and failure. So for example, if a
company with an identical business model to
Uber had been launched five years ahead of
Uber, the chances are high that it would have
failed.
The UK was lucky in its timing. Maybe the
reason why it was the UK that enjoyed an
economic boom after the colonisation of the
New World was that it coincided with the
beginnings of the industrial revolution. By
contrast, Spain and Portugal’s colonisation
began earlier and they suffered severe
hyperinflation after gold was imported from
the Americas. Britain may have beaten
France to the Industrial revolution because at
the key moment France was in the midst of a
revolution.
Research shows that age matters. According
to research from the Kauffman Foundation,
the peak age for setting up new companies
is 40. At this age, entrepreneurs have the
necessary experience and contacts to startout on their own, but also the energy. Both
the UK and US saw a mini baby-boom during
the so called millennial period, that is to say
children born between 1981 and 1997. In a
few years’ time the oldest of these millennials
will be hitting 40. But there is something a
tad different about the millennial generation.
They do appear to be more entrepreneurially
minded.
Research from DueDil and Enterprise Nation
found that, between 2006 and 2013, the
number of businesses set up by people
under 35 increased by 76 per cent, jumping
to 247,049. Right now, no less than 80,000
university students across the UK run a
business. The millennial generation are in
any case more entrepreneurially minded. By
the time they reach 40, expect fireworks.
At the same time we have the disaster that
is the UK pension industry, and the lousy
returns on pension portfolios held by baby
boomers which they diligently saved into.
Once this generation retire, they have the
option of putting their pension money into
annuities offering a guaranteed income, but,
thanks to exceptionally low interest rates, it
is likely they will be disappointed with their
income. As they reach the age of retirement,
many baby boomers will feel they have
no choice but to supplement their income.
Some may use their meagre pensions,
and remember they can now tap into all
the savings not just 25 per cent, to fund
investment into property. Others may choose
to enter the brave world of entrepreneurial
endeavour, funding their efforts from their
pension savings.
The combination of changing demographics,
disastrous returns on pensions and a change
in attitude amongst the millennial generation
means we are set to enter a time when being
an entrepreneur becomes normal, rather
than unusual.

Right now the world is going through a
rare period of technology upheaval. We
are seeing the emergence of the internet
of things which may make industry, retail,
energy use and how we manage our daily
lives incredibly efficient. We are seeing a
revolution in robotics, and 3D printing, which
will transform manufacturing. Wearable
technologies in combination with genome
sequencing, big data and artificial intelligence
will transform, shifting the emphasis from
being disease centric to preventive centric.
We are seeing the rise of virtual reality,
augmented reality, self-driving cars, the
sharing economy and technologies that will
transform the way we grow and create food,
fresh water and energy. A new technology
revolution is on the way, and now is perfect
timing to nurture entrepreneurs.