Modeling Genocide at the System and Agent Levels
Connecting |
SD |
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Agent-Based |
Modeling |
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An ABM provides a window into the micro-level dynamics of agent interaction . For instance , Experiment 1 shows that completely random variation in an agent ’ s willingness to act against others of a different identity consistently results in genocide in the presence of an identity-based conflict . However , the results of Experiment 3 show that uniformity in that willingness to act across a population , implemented as the Threshold to Act , can restrain genocide as that willingness decreases . The above result emerges despite the presence of individually varying levels of Ideology , Influence , and Susceptibility . This shows that people can be unique and varied with respect to some of their opinions and personality traits , but if they unite , even in part , in their opposition to violence against the other , it becomes possible to avoid a genocidal outcome .
A SD model provides a different perspective . Here , a model like the one outlined in the previous section can allow analysis of macro-level conditions and their impact on the likelihood of genocide . For example , a model validated on a specific historic incident can then be used to study how different variations in In-Group Control of Government and / or Military can restrain or escalate genocide . While this will not provide information about individual personalities and interactions , it does speak to the system-level dynamics . As such , an SD model can provide crucial information about macro-level mechanisms , the results of their feedback structures , and the impact on the incidence of genocide in a society .
In terms of policy recommendations and implementations , each modeling approach provides critical information that , when taken together , can result in a more comprehensive understanding of the problem , leading to policies that are more effective . For instance , an ABM similar to the one implemented in this research can be further improved in order to more accurately model and study the effects of variation of ideology with respect to different identity groups , revealing areas of sensitivity and thresholds beyond which genocide becomes unlikely . However , policy is often implemented at the macro-level , and an advanced and validated SD model can allow analysis of macro-level effects of those policies indicating the probability of their usefulness in terms of preventing genocide . In summary , an ABM can point policymakers in the right direction from the perspective of the individual citizen , and a complementary SD model can explore the potential macro-level effects of those same policies before they are implemented and filter down to the individual .
Conclusions and Future Work
In this research , the preliminary results from the ABM are encouraging . A full exploration of the model ’ s parameters will likely reveal critical information about local-level dynamics that lead to genocide . While the model is simple , it is powerful enough to demonstrate possibilities for policy recommendations . Furthermore , the model shows that a restraining factor can have an exponentially beneficial effect as it brings forth resistance to violence in the general population .
Given the Base ABM Model ’ s consistent genocidal outcome , future work should explore ways to mitigate this issue of bias . Questions to ask in this respect are :
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