Modeling Genocide at the System and Agent Levels
WWII , and the corresponding effect on its genocidal activities , provides an obvious example . Further research will help better define , characterize , and validate these dynamics .
War — Other Factors
There are three additional variables in the diagram affect War . It is logical to conclude that Allied Assistance to the Elite Regime has a positive effect , however , in the cases of External Military Intervention Against the Elite Regime and Sanctions , the relationships are more difficult to define . Either could be a factor of escalation or restraint depending upon conditions unique to the circumstances under examination , and this is an area that requires further research .
Internal Societal Factors
The scope of the diagram extends to include several variables internal to the society in question . All are connected directly to In-Group Civilian Compliance , as they have specific mechanisms that directly affect this set of actors . Each is characterized below , and future research here will more thoroughly explore all variables and their relationships .
Out-Group Armed Resistance
In addition to its ambiguous effect on In-Group Civilian Compliance , Out-Group Armed Resistance has a direct and positive effect on Threat to the Elite as shown in the diagram . This relationship , in turn , affects the level of extremism in elite ideology and other connected variables according to their polarity . As indicated by the ambiguous polarity (+/ − ) shown in the diagram , is less clear how Out-Group Armed Resistance affects In-Group Civilian Compliance . The early theory of this research is that if the resistance is effective , civilians may be less likely to accept the extremist ideology of the elite , and vice versa . This relationship may be difficult to validate , but is certainly worthy of discussion .
Strong Economy and Political Resistance
Straus ( 2012b ) discusses the dynamics of mass violence and economics , and includes in his analysis a focus on the middle class . In the diagram , Straus ’ theory provides initial justification for a Strong Economy to affect Political Resistance , which in turn may have a negative effect on In-Group Civilian Compliance . Again , more research is required here , but Straus ’ work is compelling in highlighting the importance of considering these dynamics .
Preexisting Democratic or Inclusive Ideals
Finally , the diagram includes Preexisting Democratic or Inclusive Ideals as a variable that has a negative effect on In- Group Civilian Compliance . Straus ( 2012b ) explores both positive and negative cases of genocide in sub-Saharan Africa from 1960 to 2008 . A negative case is specified by circumstances that made genocide appear to be a likely outcome , but the situation resolved without its occurrence . According to Straus ( 2012b ), genocide does not occur in established democracies . The initial hypothesis of this research is that a preexisting set of democratic ideals restrains civilian compliance . If these types of ideals are firmly entrenched in a society , they may cause its people to be less compliant in the face of extreme ideologies both from within their ranks and from the elite .
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