Policy and Complex Systems
This creates a reinforcing feedback loop ( R1 ). While not yet fully validated in this research , it is logical to conclude that in order for an elite regime to commit genocide , they require either the active participation of their civilian population , or its tacit approval . The internal dynamics of the civilian group are not clearly distinct in one direction . Waller ( 2001 ) and Straus ( 2012b ) both point to the possibility of support or restraint originating from the ingroup . The above variation is captured in the diagram through the rise and fall of In- Group Civilian Compliance .
Genocide Against the Out-Group and Societal Diversity
Further extending the diagram is Genocide Against the Out-Group , where the out-group is of a different identity than the elite and its civilian population . An increase in extremist elite ideology leads to an increased likelihood of genocide , and by extension decreases Societal Diversity . Cox ( 2017 ) states that genocide is “… enduringly destructive : The annihilation , partly or wholly , of a group diminishes the diversity and richness of the human race . When a people is eradicated or dispersed and its traditions and culture erased , all of human civilization loses much that can never be regained ” ( p . 189 ). While this research does not yet include a full validation of the connection between a decrease in diversity and an increase in civilian compliance , it is probable that its effect is important and should be included such that it closes another reinforcing loop ( R2 ).
Subnational Actors
Connected to the elite are subnational actors ( Straus , 2012a ). Due to the theoretical importance of subnational interaction with elite actors , they are included in the diagram through a reinforcing feedback loop ( R3 ). Further research results from Straus and others will help better validate and define what is likely to be an important feedback mechanism .
War
The next extension of the diagram is through the inclusion of factors such as restraint and escalation ( Straus , 2012b ). The majority of scholars in this domain agree that genocide predominantly occurs in the presence of war or other armed conflict . According to Verdeja ( 2002 ), rapid and catastrophic social transformation , such as war , military coup , revolution , or economic collapse , are structural elements that often precede genocide . These conditions greatly increase instability in a system , which the elite can then exploit to drive divisive and genocidal agendas ( Straus , 2012b ).
Threat to Elite and Genocide Against the Out-Group
In the diagram , War has a positive effect on Threat to the Elite , which is in turn has a positive effect on Extreme Elite Ideology . While this research has not yet fully validated the above , the existence of a threat to the elite regime is likely to be an important factor of escalation . The ambiguity of the diagram ’ s labeled effect of War on Genocide Against the Out-Group highlights the possibility that armed conflict may have a direct positive or negative effect on genocide . Territorial advances by external actors could reduce the incidence of genocide by providing safe havens for out-group civilians , although the opposite is possible in the presence of territorial advances made by the extreme elite regime . The rise and fall of Nazi Germany in
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