Journal on Policy & Complex Systems Volume 3, Issue 2 - Page 6

Policy and Complex Systems - Volume 3 Number 2 - Fall 2017 Scenarios of Social Conflict Dynamics on Duplex Networks Miron Kaufman A , Sanda Kaufman A , Hung The Diep B Abstract Social conflicts among large groups of people can have serious and costly consequences that can exceed the time and space boundaries of the contentious groups. They require carefully thought-out strategies for addressing the contested issues. However, the complexity of social conflicts poses obstacles to their resolution. Not only is it difficult to find clear cause-and-effect relationships, but the conflict dynamics impede prediction of outcomes. For any group in conflict, strategizing to find a way out requires an approach that allows testing of the range of consequences of various strategies. Thus in complex situations, where predicting how the opponent will respond to a strategy is difficult, a party to conflict might engage instead in anticipation, generating and preparing for a range of possible scenarios. We draw from duplex networks modeling to further analyze a recently proposed scenario- generating model of conflicts and illustrate its application with two examples. Keywords: social conflict, complexity, network dynamics, and social physics. A Cleveland State University, B University of Cergy-Pontoise 3 doi: 10.18278/jpcs.3.2.1