Policy and Complex Systems
success . Dörner ( 1996 ) maintained humans are highly deficient at solving complex problems . He described complex problems as traps having chaotic characteristics and attributes . For policymakers , poverty in the U . S . is one such trap . Dörner ( 1996 ) stated complex problems are situations that have seven defining attributes :
1 . A large number of interdependent variables that affect each other , potentially leading to long chains of inter-related events .
2 . Evolution over time , not a simple onestep-and-done situation .
3 . Effects that act with time lags , so the results of action are not always immediately apparent .
4 . Variables that act dynamically in response to external or internal stimuli , even if no action is taken by the policymaker
5 . Unclear , conflicting , or tacit goals and objectives for what is to be achieved .
6 . Intransparence where variables , their values , and how they relate to each other are not always known .
7 . “ Chaotic ” behavior where slight changes in the initial state can have dramatic consequences downstream .
I discuss these seven attributes more in the next section using models of complexity . This complexity is first characterized by a three-dimensional model using chaos theory , complexity theory , paradox theory and then as a fourdimensional model by adding the concept of time .
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