Policy and Complex Systems
occurs through a one directional and governmental process occurring in stages , democratic public policy occurs through many complex and interrelated factors . Included in this are interactions between the physical universe , biological systems on earth , and policymaking .
Initial Conditions and Nesting
Emergent democratic public policy output and outcome trends stem from unique and complex initial conditions when a particular policy event occurs . Because each policy is emergent and unique , the probabilities are large that no two policies originate from the same original conditions . Increasing complexity in the policy making process happens when policies are based on actions like natural processes on earth where government policymaking usually does not take place . Initial conditions are not only horizontal across a policymaking system , but can be nested and vertical . ( 2015 )
Key Strange Attractors
Even though democratic policy outputs and outcomes are not usually predictable over a long period of time due to their emergent nature based on complex interactions and implementation , there are universal characteristics in policymaking equivalent to fixed points or in chaos theory--strange attractors ( Williams , 2003 ). One prominent key attractor or fixed point in any political system is whether policy outputs and outcomes result in more or less democracy predicated on “… human welfare , individual freedom , security , equity , social equality , public deliberation , and peaceful conflict resolution ( Baumgartner & Jones , 2009 ; Givel , 2010 ; Tilly , 2007 ).
Policy Change
Ordinarily , complex democratic policy change or not happens within a stable political system . Regardless , policy crises or catastrophes may also radically alter a stable political system through a significant event such as a Great Depression or political revolution . Such crises can create a transitional period of time where unstable policy behavior occurs . For example , from September 5 , 1793 to July 28 , 1794 during the transitional “ Reign of Terror ” after the French Revolution , substantial policy instability occurred .
The Road Forward : Democratic and Complexity Policy Theory
Figure 4 , provides an update to the current conglomerated U . S . policy theories that are predicated on pluralist theory and interest group interactions and assumes this is democratic in scope . The updated conglomerate model provides a comparative basis to describe and predict how democratic a given society ’ s public policies might be based on complex system behavior . Policy decisions and causes can be bilateral or unilateral . For instance , a natural catastrophe can be the unilateral cause of emergency responses and public policy making . On the other hand , a policy that is implemented by a public agency may be returned to a legislative body due to a bilateral flow of decision-making , regulation , and political concerns . Incorporated into this model is how complex system behavior influences democratic policy-making .
Additionally , in line with the recent call for a multi-faceted approach in social movement theory building social movements are considered exogenous to insider political institutions , but also linked to political institutions . Ultimately , the aim of all
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