Journal on Policy & Complex Systems Volume 3, Issue 1, Spring 2017 | Page 6

Policy and Complex Systems - Volume 3 Number 1 - Spring 2017

Growing Collaborations : Forecasting Changes in Partnership Networks using a Bottom-Up Approach

Steve Scheinert , Asim Zia , Christopher Koliba , and Scott Merrill A
Both social and organizational networks change over time . Previous research has examined and documented the change in social networks using dynamic network analysis . However , limited research has examined mechanisms of change , leaving the mechanisms in a proverbial “ black box .” We show how exponential random graph models can be used to measure the influence of some of the mechanisms that drive network development . Our mechanisms are derived from network theory and applied to a goal-directed organizational partnership network , the Vermont Farm to Plate Network . Our method uses an agent-based model to induce bottom-up network change . This approach allows us to offers some explanation of the underlying mechanisms for network change . Implications for forecasting network growth in a governance and policy context are discussed .
Keywords : network growth , organizational partnership networks , governance , networked governance , agent-based model , exponential random graph models , policy implementation

Interpersonal professional social

networks change over time . Friendships grow and fade and new friendships emerge . That this change occurs is well established in studies that document changes in scientific collaboration among individual researchers ( Barabasi et al , 2002 ; Perc , 2010 ; Tomassini & Luthi , 2007 ). The links between professional researchers help to facilitate and describe the flow of research funding , allowing for the tracking of ideas , and financial resource flows , among networks of individual researchers . Such interpersonal links exist between professionals in all fields . When professionals collaborate as representatives of organizations , the unit of analysis of a node shifts from the individual to the organization . Instead of networks of individual collaborators , these may be viewed as inter-organizational networks of partners , or “ partnership networks .” Inter-organizational partnership networks have now been observed in many places , including environmental and water quality management ( Weible & Sabatier , 2005 ; Lubell & Fulton , 2007 ; Henry , Lubell , & McCoy , 2010 ; McGinnis , 2011 ; Imperial , 2005 ), healthcare ( Isett & Provan , 2005 ), and emergency management ( Kapucu & Demiroz , 2011 ; O ’ Toole , 1997 ), and thus can be considered a common structure in policymaking and implementation . Since partnership networks are built from the same individual collaborations and professional social networks , partnership networks are also subject to the same forces that drive
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University of Vermont doi : 10.18278 / jpcs . 3.1.1
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