Policy and Complex Systems
that the use of system dynamics can help in the comparison of different policies " a priori ".
In what contexts was complexity theory explored in public policies ?
Even though complexity theory can be applied in a variety of policy areas , we have found the predominance of studies on healthcare policies ( table 8 ), considering only those applied in a specific area . There are 13 studies ( 28.89 %) that are not topicspecific , i . e ., they rather focus on the use of complexity applied to public policies generically , or on the use of specific tools of complex systems .
It should be noted that there are two studies that focus on two topics each : Pinheiro Filho , and Sarti ( 2012 ) ( economy ; healthcare ) and McClure et al ( 2015 ) ( land use ; healthcare ).
It should be noted that some applications of complexity theory in subsectors of public policies were not covered by our search strategy . For example , this is the case of science policy and innovation studies ( SPIS ), as defined by Martin ( 2012 ).
Because typical innovation systems are more than the sum of its parts ( Muller , Héraud , & Zenker , 2016 ), there is a growing interest in using complex systems to inform policies in this area , mainly related to the improvement of current indicators used by governments ( Katz , 2006 & 2016 ).
What are the main complex system tools recommended for policymakers ?
To answer this question , we used two different approaches . First , we analyzed only the tools used in the 17 applied studies , i . e ., those that present an empirical evidence , a model , or a simulation ( table 9 ). Second , we read the 18 conceptual studies and analyzed whether there was a recommendation of a complex system tool ( table 10 ). In this sense , we can see a predominance of agentbased modeling ( ABM ) in both tables 9 and 10 . Considering only the applied studies , ABM represents 47.06 % of the total . System dynamics were used in 23.53 % of the studies . When it comes to the conceptual studies , 11 out of 18 recommended one or more tools for the use in public policies . Of these 11 , ABM was cited in eight ( 72.7 %) studies .
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