A Complex Adaptive Systems Analysis of Shaka Zulu and the Mfecane
1,600 Start Trade |
Great Man – Trade – Drought |
1785 |
1,600 |
100 |
1775 |
3,900 |
100 |
1786 |
1,960 |
99.902 |
1776 |
13,279.5 |
99.7276 |
1787 |
2,009 |
99.8016 |
1777 |
22,113.5 |
99.274 |
1788 |
2,059.23 |
99.6986 |
1778 |
31,168.3 |
98.6346 |
1789 |
2,110.71 |
99.5931 |
1779 |
40,449.5 |
48.9025 |
1790 |
2,163.47 |
99.4849 |
1791 |
2217.56 |
99.374 |
1792 |
2273 |
99.2604 |
1793 |
2,329.82 |
99.1439 |
1794 2,388.07 99.0245
1795 |
2,447.77 |
98.9021 |
1796 |
2,508.97 |
98.7766 |
1797 2,571.69 98.648
1798 |
2,635.98 |
98.5162 |
1799 |
2,701.88 |
98.3811 |
1800 |
2,769.43 |
98.2427 |
1801 |
2,838.66 |
98.1007 |
1802 2,909.63 97.9553
1803 |
2,982.37 |
97.8061 |
1804 |
3,056.93 |
97.6533 |
1805 3,133.35 97.4966
1806 |
3,211.69 |
97.336 |
1807 |
3,291.98 |
97.1714 |
1808 |
3,374.28 |
97.0027 |
1809 |
3,458.64 |
96.8298 |
1810 3,545.1 96.6525
1811 |
3,633.73 |
96.4709 |
1812 |
3,724.57 |
96.2846 |
1813 3,817.69 96.0937
1814 |
3,913.13 |
95.8981 |
1815 |
4,010.96 |
95.6975 |
1816 |
4,111.23 |
95.492 |
1817 |
4,214.01 |
95.2813 |
1818 4,319.36 95.0653
1819 |
4,427.35 |
94.8439 |
1820 |
4,538.03 |
94.617 |
1821 4,651.48 94.3845
1822 |
4,767.77 |
94.1461 |
1823 |
4,886.96 |
93.9017 |
1824 5,009.14 93.6513
1780 |
49,962.8 |
23.9388 |
1781 |
59,713.8 |
22.7139 |
1782 |
69,708.7 |
21.284 |
1783 |
79,953.4 |
19.6439 |
1784 90,454.2 17.7884
Addition of the drought factor does not change the negligible impact of trade : “ Great Man Drought ” ( allowing for two years of drought 1820 – 1821 , as Nicholson indicates ) shows an environmental quality of 17.88904 in the 10th year without trade factors (“ Great Man – Drought ” chart ) and 17.78843 with trade added to the mix (“ Great Man – Drought – Trade ” chart ). Similarly , factoring in the drought for 1804 in the “ 1600 Drought ” chart , a level of 46.24219 is the result of the 40th year ; adding trade in “ 1600-Drought – Trade ” yields a value of 45.50896 . Thus , absent major revisions in the value attributed to the impact of trade , the various possibilities of European economic activity do not create the level of change achieved by either the Great Man innovations or the much more substantial impact of drought .
The eight charts created ( four during the “ Great Man ” period 1816 – 1826 , four during the earlier period 1775 – 1815 , and prior to the “ Great Man ” period for the Zulu ) represent all possible permutations of the four possible root causes of the Mfecane . Insofar as the Zulu are concerned , drought had the greatest impact on the available resources for production . However , it required the addition of the Great Man innovations to the drought of 1820 – 1821 Mfecane period , however great or small those
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