Policy and Complex Systems
In contrast to ivory , cattle were part of the basic fabric of Nguni society — the basic plan of villages was the “ Central Cattle Plan ” to indicate the ( literally ) central place cattle occupied in society ( Kinsman , 1995 ). Control over livestock was used to control subordinates and dependence on cattle extended to all strata of society ( Perry , 1999 ). Even without deterioration of the environment , increased demand for cattle would have required an increase in production , and expansion of production and pasture was accomplishable through seizing another ’ s land ( Manson , 1995 ). Certainly , the oral traditions of the later eighteenth century indicate increasing conflict over cattle and pasture ( Kinsman , 1995 ).
The basic premise of Cobbing ’ s attack on the traditional view of the Mfecane is that the slave trade was the primary engine driving the conflicts of the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries in Southern Africa ( Wilson , 2001a ). Demand for slaves exploded after 1815 in response to variety of European factors in the years after the Napoleonic Wars : increased population , new purchasing power , new markets , and a sharp increase in demand for sugar combined to call for increased numbers of sugar plantations in the New World manned by slaves ( Cobbing , 1988 , 1992 ). The slave trade , like its predecessor ivory trade , was extremely profitable , and at its height in the 1820s and 1830s as many as 2,000 were exported a year from the area around Delagoa Bay ( Harries , 1981 ). Contemporary observers estimated that five people were killed for every slave exported indicating annually losses of 10,000 – 12,000 in a region with a population of 100,000 – 180,000 during the height of the slave trade ( Cobbing , 1988 ). Oversupply brought the price down sharply “ to virtually nothing ” at ports of embarkation by 1824 – 1825 ( Harries , 1981 ).
The various trade arguments all attribute an increase in control of the elite ( Great Man / amabutho factors ) to trade of various sorts . Trade may be said to “ somewhat ” increase the power of the elite and can be illustrated by the addition of 2 of the value ( McNeill & Freiberger , 1993 ). A separate “ Trade Kiel System Dynamics chart ” illustrates the effects of trade .
Although the values applied in the analysis of trade impact may be questioned ( and Cobbing , Wright , and Harries certainly would , especially given Cobbing ’ s extreme estimates of the impact of slaving expeditions on the inland Nguni population ), the overall trend of effects of the various kinds of trade can be seen in the charts “ Great Man Trade ” and “ 1600 Trade ” when compared with “ Great Man ” and “ 1600 Start .”
Great Man Trade
1775 3,900 100 1776 13,279.5 99.7276
1777 |
22,113.5 |
99.274 |
1778 |
31,168.3 |
98.6346 |
1779 40,449.5 97.8049
1780 |
49,962.8 |
96.78 |
1781 |
59,713.8 |
95.5551 |
1782 |
69,708.7 |
94.1252 |
1783 |
79,953.4 |
92.4851 |
1784 90,454.2 90.6297
The application of the Trade portion of the equation has a negligible effect on environmental productivity in each case , a difference of environmental quality in the 10th year of the Great Man chart of 90.78894 without trade and 90.62967 with trade . Similarly , in the 1,600 start charts , without trade environmental quality in 1815 would be 94.6878 of what it was in 1775 ; the quality level of trade is 93.65127 after 40 years .
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