Journal on Policy & Complex Systems Volume 2, Number 1, Spring 2015 | Page 59

A Complex Adaptive Systems Analysis of Shaka Zulu and the Mfecane

followed the sharp decline in 1804 , thus the presence of a sizable military presence ( achieved at the time of the second major drought ) was a necessary condition for Shaka ’ s military successes .

Great Man – Drought

1794 3,900 100 1795 12,499.5 99.7436 1796 21,313.99 99.30639 1797 30,348.84 98.68385 1798 39,609.56 48.93567 1799 49,101.8 23.96423 1800 58,831.34 22.75743 1801 68,804.13 21.34606 1802 79,026.23 19.72501 1803 89,503.88 17.88904

The final node of activity is trade . Trade in luxury items had flourished in Africa as early as from the fifth century ( Gluckman , 1960 ). Trade with the Portuguese colony of Delagoa Bay involved exports of ivory in exchange for “ beads , cloth , and brass bangles ” ( Omer-Cooper , 1977 ). European demand for ivory rose sharply in the last half of the eighteenth century ( Manson , 1995 , p . 358 ). Control of the trade and increased hunting requirements to meet heightened European demand for ivory caused the rulers to expand their control over the young men who hunted elephant to increase and regularize ivory production ( Omer-Cooper , 2001 ). Excessive hunting of the elephant herds led to a sharp decline in available ivory resources and the need to find another product to market if trade was to continue ( Perry , 1999 ).

Demand for cattle and meat had been strong since early in the eighteenth century ( Penn , 1987 ). Hedges posited a transition to major reliance on cattle trade replacing the diminished ivory trade ( Perry , 1999 ).

1,600 Start – Drought

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