Policy and Complex Systems
Great Man Influence
Increases
Trade
Increased Productivity , Increased Zulu Population
Increases
Zulu Population
Figure 3 -- Shaka Variation 2
Decreases
Environmental Quality / Productivity
Estimates for the population node must take into account the increase and rate of increase during the pre-Shaka period . Perry ( 1999 ) reached figures of 2,600 from averaging population density studies and 5,166 from averaging estimates from ethno historical sources , primarily contemporary and near-contemporary documents . Although difficult to quantify precisely because of the absence of written records , signs of frequent fission of chiefdoms in the traditional expansion process , as well as anecdotal evidence indicate a rapid increase in population ( Omer-Cooper , 1977 ). Perry arrives at a post-Mfecane population of Zululand of 252,665 from ethnographic sources and 907,460 from population studies ( Perry , 1999 ). Bryant ( 1929 ) arrives at a much lower figure of 96,000 . Bryant ( 1929 ) estimates a natural rate of population increase for Southern Africa at a figure doubling every 45 years . For our purposes , let us begin by averaging Perry ’ s two figures , which would yield an initial Zulu population of approximately 3,900 . Whatever the source of the increase , the larger Zulu population alone would account for heightened competition for resources ( Gump , 1991 ).
Some of the increase was the result of natural growth in population , some the result of Shaka ’ s “ join or die ” strategy of assimilation for defeated people ( Omer-Cooper , 1977 ). The contributions attributed to Shaka , primarily the amabutho and adoption of new tactics and weaponry , affected the assimilationist strategy . The success of the new military concepts is perceivable in the effectiveness of the strategy of assimilation of the vanquished . Clearly , the numbers of defeated foes incorporated into the Zulu state indicate the effectiveness of the Zulu military .
Taking an annual rate of natural population growth of 2.5 % ( slightly larger than predicted by Bryant ) and applying it to the average of Perry ’ s initial population ( 3,900 ) would result in the Zulu population reaching roughly 4,900 in 10 years . Taking Bryant ’ s conservative estimate of 96,000 Zulu subjects in 1826 would mean that Shaka ’ s strategy added more or less 90,000 . This would mean an average annual increase of 2.18 times the original Zulu population resulting from the military changes adopted .
Environmental factors are another node of activity . Environmental considerations are both human caused ( principally deterioration of soil and flora )
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