Journal on Policy & Complex Systems Volume 2, Number 1, Spring 2015 | Page 50

Policy and Complex Systems
Evaluation of the different theories of the Mfecane is an excellent candidate for use of the Spreadsheet-FCM method . The underlying information is imprecise in some cases , subject to differing interpretations in others . A fuzzy model can capture the imprecise nature of that information . CAS theory is usable to analyze the sequence of changes and adaptations of the Zulu , other Nguni , and surrounding tribes made in response to natural forces and each other . The different explanations are testable by altering the FCM nodes representing each theory ’ s causal factor , whether by augmentation or elimination , while holding the discounted causes steady . The effect of a given theory ’ s premises is perceivable by allowing the process to play out through iteration . That is , each candidate explanation can have a representative model constructed and then validated through operation of the model . Repeated runs can then verify the degree of validity of each model and hence each theory ( Janssen , 2009 ).
The conventional view of the Mfecane “… derives from George McCall Theal ’ s History of Southern Africa from 1795 to 1872 ” and was fixed in place by A . T . Bryant ’ s Olden Times in Zululand and Natal ( Janssen , 2009 ). Under the standard explanation , the shortlived Zulu Empire was the creation of one man : Shaka ( Bryant , 1929 ; Carlean , 1992 ; Gump , 1991 ). According to Morris ( 1965 ), the Zulus rose from being a clan “ pitifully small and totally lacking in organization ” ( p . 49 ), with a total population at the beginning of their rise of perhaps 2000 ( Danziger , 1983 , p . 80 ). At the height of their power , they were responsible for the Mfecane . According to How ( 1955 ), the word is translatable as “ forced wandering ” or “ crushing ” but it carries the same emotional weight as “ holocaust ” or “ trail of tears ” ( p . 66 ) in other contexts — the bare translation is insufficient to convey any but a fraction of the meaning
( Gump , 1988 , p . 1 ).
Researchers have proposed numerous explanations for the cause or causes of the Mfecane . At times the innovations and influence of great leaders has been held to be determinative ( Shaka and / or Dingiswayo ). A particular focus of the “ great man ” explanation has been the innovations or adaptations in warfare of Shaka : new weaponry in the stabbing assegai , new battlefield tactics in the bull ’ s head – horn – loins formation , extended military service for young men allowing a heightened level of training for his soldiers and a strategy of “ join or die ” for conquered foes . Others have suggested the pressures resulting from the meteorological factors ( catastrophic drought or drought cycles ). Still others have suggested environmental degradation ( deterioration of pasture from overgrazing or soil exhaustion from maize cultivation ). Overpopulation pressure has had its proponents ( either directly causing the Nguni migrations or forcing the Tswana to invade Nguni territory , calling for a militarized society to respond in defense ). Trade with Europeans has been proposed : either the ivory trade with the Portuguese at Delagoa calling for larger , better organized and armed hunting parties to more efficiently produce ivory ; trade in meat to ships calling for resupply requiring increased cattle production in turn calling for conquest of wider grazing lands and cattle raids ; attempts to maintain a monopoly on trade routes with Europeans calling for conflict to defend or acquire access ; or a healthy slave trade with Delagoa Bay requiring raids on surrounding tribes to supply the demand of European customers . Some historians have denied of the existence of the Mfecane , alleging that there was no catastrophic chain of conquest and migration , rather that Europeans invented the entire concept to provide a justification for European seizure of land and exploitation of African labor .
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