Policy and Complex Systems - Volume 2 Number 1 - Spring 2015
A Complex Adaptive Systems Analysis of Shaka Zulu and the Mfecane
Chris Newman A
This paper applies Complex Adaptive Systems methodology to the historic period , specifically in a case study to explain the mfecane and its relationship to the development and operation of the Zulu nation under Shaka , an example of a revolution and rebellion by a great leader of previously obscure group . Such a revolt involves the leader 1 ) rising from personal obscurity and powerlessness to control his group ; and then 2 ) expanding the power and control of his group to dominate his region .
Keywords : Zulu , mfecane , Africa , increase , population
This paper proposes to apply complex
adaptive systems ( CAS ) methodology to the historic period , specifically in a case study to explain the Mfecane and its relationship to the development and operation of the Zulu nation under Shaka . The rise of the Zulu nation under Shaka is an example of a category of revolution and rebellion by a great leader of previously obscure group . Such a revolt involves the leader ( 1 ) rising from personal obscurity and powerlessness to control his group ; and then ( 2 ) expanding the power and control of his group to dominate his region . Shaka Zulu is one of a number of successful leaders of previously obscure groups to a widespread domination ; others include Brian Boru and Temujin / Genghis Khan ( Ryan , 1967 ). Unsuccessful leaders of previously obscure groups include False Dmitrii I ; Pancho Villa ; Pugachev the Pretender ; and Stenka Razin ( Dunning , 2003 ; Longworth , 1973 , 1975 ; Reid , 1981 ). The appearance of such a leader of such a group , to say nothing of a rise to dominance by that group , would satisfy John Holland ’ s definition of emergence “ much coming from little ” which he characterizes as a hallmark of CAS ( Holland , 1998 , p . 1 ). Holland ( 1998 ) goes on to note that emergence is a non-linear result of “ coupled , contextdependent interactions ” leading to the standard test for emergence : “ The behavior of the overall system cannot be obtained by summing the behaviors of its constituent parts ” ( p . 122 ). Throughout history , there have been many disenfranchised and marginalized groups . There have been many alienated outcasts . There have even been individuals representing the intersection of those two sets . It is rare , however , that an outcast mobilizes a marginalized group to contend for power and still rarer that the combination results in primacy .
The paper proposes to use a complex adaptive systems ( CAS ) modeling technique to illustrate and analyze the process of , the nature of , and even the existence of the Mfecane — a cascade of war and migration in Southern Africa in the first quarter of the nineteenth century . Specifically , the paper proposes to use a form of system
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Elgin Community College 10.18278 / jpcs . 2.1.6
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