Journal on Policy & Complex Systems Volume 1, Number 2, Fall 2014 | Page 116

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production facility , it is increasingly important to avoid unfavorable WOM ( Lau & Ng , 2001 ). The importance and severity of unfavorable WOM is not often appreciated by firms , but can effectively lead to the failure of a product or technology ( Lau & Ng , 2001 ). The mechanism is consumer-to-consumer recommendation to avoid a product , thus effectively removing potential adopters from considering the product ( Lau & Ng , 2001 ). Consumers are more impacted by losses and perceived risk than gains , and need to see a stronger upside to a choice to overcome potential risks ( Bettman , Luce , & Payne , 1998 ; Wangenheim , 2005 ). Risk is divided into three types : functional , financial , and social . The first two are particularly germane to the consumer choice of fuel purchase . The later was a factor in the Keith model where , for example , social pressures may influence the early uptake of hybrid powertrain technology . The weight placed on the consumer goals ( performance , price , range , and availability ) will vary and will ultimately impact the relative weighting of the utility factors in a model ( Bettman , et al ., 1998 ). The level of dissatisfaction matters , with up to 90 % of customers choosing not to repurchase ( Richins , 1983 ). Concurrently , higher contact rates are reported for dissatisfied customers with over one third actively informing others ( Richins , 1983 ). Four general categories of decision making and influence are defined :
1 . Low cost to switching and high dissatisfaction .
2 . High cost to switching and high dissatisfaction .
3 . Low cost to switching and low dissatisfaction .
4 . High cost to switching and low dissatisfaction .
The likelihood of switching varies between the above listed categories ( Lee & Romaniuk , 2009 ). Vehicle choice falls into category 2 or 4 , and can lead to the persistence of unfavorable views that can in turn , lead to market failure . Research also suggests that the elasticity of WOM may be stronger for newer or less established products or technologies such as the SO platform under consideration ( Chen , Liu , Cheng-Hsi , & Tom , 2013 ).
Stakeholders — Defining the System

Considering unfavorable WOM in

developing a new model confronts the complex challenge of identifying an appropriate system boundary . The individual stakeholders for the SO fuel-vehicle system each have different , often conflicting objectives within the larger fuel-vehicle ecosystem . Balancing these objectives is a key impediment to consumer adoption of alternative powertrain and fuel technologies ( Byrne & Polonsky , 2001 ). Achieving policy success depends on finding the operational space that meets all stakeholder needs ( see Figure 2 ). The stakeholder characteristics and needs define the model structure , how the behavior and view formation of each stakeholder is represented in the complex system , and provide a qualitative understanding of the system ’ s complexity .
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Vehicle manufacturers ( original equipment manufacturers or

OEMs ) need a lowest cost option for fuel economy compliance . The overlapping design options vary from a system design accommodating up to 20 % ethanol SO , designed to use 10 % up to 30 % ethanol SO , requiring a very specific 30 % ethanol SO , and an evolution of the ( FFV ) to a SO FFV ( Graves , 2014 ; Leone , 2014 ; Woebkenberg ,
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