Policy and Complex Systems
fore , ABM for policy analysis requires tools for involving stakeholders when developing the agent-based model . This can be achieved by combining serious games and real actors into agent-based models ( Castella , Trung , and Boissau 2005 ; Guyot and Honiden 2006 ).
The integration of ABM and SG would also facilitate and improve the parameterization of the problem or problematic behavior . While it is possible to develop highly sophisticated intelligent agents who are capable of making realistic decisions for their actions and interactions , the agents are still predictable to a great extent . Incorporating real actors in the agent-based model covers uncertain and unanticipated behaviors .
Enhancements for Dealing with Evaluation Criteria in Policy Analysis
Evaluation of policies is important because a faulty choice can have expensive consequences in terms of health , money , time , and security . Agent-based modelling ( ABM ) can have several added values in terms of policy evaluation . First , involving real actors in simulated scenarios in an agent-based model can help them identify measures . Second , by providing consistency between policy measures and those evaluations performed on the agent-based models , the results of the simulated system can be highly reliable for the policy analysts . Currently , verification and validation of agent-based models is more geared toward the actual software model rather than real world implications . Finally , using serious games and involving problem owners and domain experts in agent-based simulations would also facilitate the definitions of evaluation measures .
Enhancements for Dealing with Policy Alternatives
Many ABM tools and packages provide visualization facilities ( e . g ., Tisue 2004 ; North , Collier , and Vos 2006 ). However , it is highly instrumental if ABM tools have explicit policy representation so that it is possible to enable / disable each policy alternative in order to observe the effects . As we previously discussed , having an explicit structure for policies re- quires the incorporation of top-down social structures in agent-based models rather than building them purely from bottom-up ( Conte et al . 2001 ).
Another issue for studying policy alternatives is the exploration of the emergent consequences of a policy implementation . As previously discussed , emergent behavior in a social system ( i . e ., the global reaction toward an implemented policy ) is different compared to other emergent properties existing in physical and natural systems which are commonly recognized as emergence in ABM ( Epstein 2006 ). Emergence in a social system is recognized and identified by the individuals and reacted on , while in other types of emergence , the individuals ( e . g ., birds in a flock ) are not conscious about the emergent structure they have created . For example , in a flock , the birds form a shape while they are not aware of the flock shape and do not make an effort to influence the shape in any particular way . They do , however , try to position themselves according to their neighbors . In a social system on the other hand , an individual recognizes an economic crisis ( an emergent pattern ). He tries to change the situation if powerful enough or adjust his own status according to the global situation rather than his own surroundings and neighbors .
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