Policy and Complex Systems - Volue 1 Issue 1 - Spring 2014
Enhancing ABM into an Inevitable Tool for Policy Analysis
Dr Amineh Ghorbani A , Dr Francien Dechesne B , Dr Virginia Dignum C , Prof . Dr . Catholijn Jonker D
Social systems consist of many heterogeneous decision-making entities who create complexity through their interactions . These systems are governed by policies in a multi-scale institutional context . While policy is a top-down instrument , its effect is determined by a bottom-up process , in the sense that the aggregate behavior of the social system is the result of interaction and reasoning on the level of individuals . We argue that understanding social systems at the individual level significantly contributes to understanding and predicting the effectiveness of policies . Given that agent-based modeling ( ABM ) allows for rich representation of individuals , it is well suited for providing necessary insights for policy analysis . To support this claim , in this paper , we give a systematic overview of the requirements that policy analysis puts forward . By viewing policy analysis as a cycle of activities , we discuss five categories : problem definition , policy evaluation , identification of alternative policies , decision support , and monitoring . Moreover , we evaluate mathematical and computational tools with respect to these requirements . Finally , we propose a list of extensions to ABM for monitoring , decision making , and participatory design in the policy analysis cycle .
Keywords : agent-based modeling , policy analysis , tool selection , policy cycle
1 . Introduction
How would taxation on light bulbs or
subsidies on LED lamps influence the behavior of consumers toward more energy saving habits ? Can investment on manure-based biogas systems improve farming prospects for animal farmers ? And , does fining recyclers in a developing country prevent them from hiring children and using dangerous chemicals when they are recycling electronic appliances ? These questions all address policy problems , exploring the long-term effect of strategic decisions on the operational behavior of individuals and on the global outcomes of the complex social system .
Policies are rules or instruments guiding actions and decision making by people in order to achieve desired outcomes in social systems . The design of effective policies is a cyclic process of identifying the objective , defining alternative policies , selecting the one that would best address the objective , and finally monitoring and evaluating the implemented policies ’ effects on the system ( Weimer and Vining 2005 ). Throughout this cycle various tools ranging
A
Faculty of Technology Policy and Management , Delft University of Technology , The Netherlands
B
Faculty of Technology Policy and Management , Delft University of Technology , The Netherlands
C
Faculty of Technology Policy and Management , Delft University of Technology , The Netherlands
D
Faculty of Electrical Engineering , Mathematics and Computer Science , Delft University of Technology , Delft , The Netherlands
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