Policy and Complex Systems
Alternatives would then be prioritized and choices would be made based on agreed upon criteria . This process would be supported by accurate information , which would reduce the uncertainties and risks in policymaking along with general theories , and would guide the comparison of alternative solutions .
The intent is to improve policymaking through establishing validity between the policy strategy , the level of supporting evidence , and the focus of the policy ( high-level or detailed ). However , this ideal approach is seldom realized in government .
Policymakers have two distinctly different scientific research methodologies : empirical and grounded —( Refer to Figure 20 ) available to them :
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Empirical research is based upon theory , predictions ( formulas ), and experimentation . Theories and experimentation simplify problems through using deductive thinking to focus on a limited number of variables , and ignore the noise from a complex world . Empirical research provides very detailed causal relationships between a small number of variables that can be used to develop very detailed policies ( bespoke and evolutionary policy strategies ). Grounded research focuses on the real world using inductive thinking to develop a holistic system understanding . Complex policies usually have a variety of interacting variables , multiple interdependent processes operating simultaneously , and exhibit behavioral patterns that are non-linear , recursive , and emergent . The grounded research approach is suited to provide evidence to develop high-level goals and guidance for emergent policy strategies . The WAVE Planning methodology and agent-based modeling provide effective testing and evaluation processes of complex policies .
Evidentiary support for complex policyowners is provided by both the grounded and empirical methodologies of scientific research , with each of the methodologies providing different computational and modeling processes . Table 4 summarizes the differences between the bespoke , evolutionary , and emergent policy development / implementation strategies .
Policies designs are driven by philosophy , vision , and / or problems . Regardless of the policy driver , policyowners are faced with the issue of policy design . However , depending upon the type of policy ( bespoke , evolutionary , or emergent ) different approaches to policy design are required .
The heuristics for policy design are : �� �� �� ��
Do not plan detail beyond the certainty horizon . Bounded rationality will drive policy design . Understand the policy holistically before commencing design . Understand the policy design cost
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P . Acheson , L . Pape , G . Dagli , N . Kilican-Ergin , J . Columbi , and K . Haris , Understanding Systems of Systems Using an Agent-Based Wave Model . Complex Adaptive Systems , Publication 2 Cihan H . Dagli , Editor in Chief . Conference Organized by Missouri University of Science and Technology 2012 , Washington DC , 2012 .
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N . Ricci , A . Ross , D . Rhodes , and M . Fitzgerald , “ Considering Alternative Strategies for Value Sustainment in system-of-systems .” SEAri Working Paper Series , WP-2012-3-2 . Systems Engineering Advancement Research Initiative , Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge , 2013 .
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