Policy and Complex Systems
troduce changes without significant rework or interruption to continuity . Not all policies are complex . Therefore , policymakers will be more effective if they purposefully view different types of policies through different lenses ( refer to Table 2 ).
Foresight for complex policies can be developed through modeling , combined with WAVE Planning , connective planning , systems thinking , and agent based modeling . Combined , these methodologies and tools provide an understanding of our complex world , and foresight into complex policy design , implementation , delivery , and emergence . Five toolsets support policyowners in developing foresight : Systems Thinking ; Multiple views ; Technical Enterprise Readiness Index ; Agent Based Modeling ; and WAVE Modeling
Systems Thinking
Systems thinking provides policymakers with a range of tools to support design , risk management , strategy selection , and sensemaking . Table 3 allocates appropriate systems thinking tools to each of the policy strategies , and takes into consideration the nature of the policy environment .
Multiple Views
Bounded rationality is one of the greatest risks in policy design . A structured process that looks at policy through multiple views provides the policyowner with a holistic understanding . These multiple views can be developed and integrated using a range of systems thinking tools .
Technical Enterprise Readiness Index
Tools such as the Technology Readiness Level ( TRL ), Integration Readiness Level ( IRL ), Systems Readiness Level ( SML ), and Enterprise Readiness Level ( ERL ) provide key inputs into policy development and implementation planning .
Agent Based Modeling
Agent Based Modeling 14 provides complex policymakers with a tool to simulate complex systems-of-systems .
WAVE Modeling
WAVE Planning enables the modeling and simulation of alternative governance , and stewardship strategies for value sustainment in systems-of-systems . 15
With foresight , governments :
�� have voluntarism , and are not easily caught by events outside their control ; �� have the ability to steer emergence ; �� can proactively feed forward to influence their future ; and
�� can effectively leverage their legacy systems , while providing a framework that can proactively take up new technologies ; and that proactively invest in and take advantage of future technologies .
7 . Evidentiary support for Policy Design
Owing to their varying levels of certainty and risk , different approaches to evidence to support decision making are appropriate for the three Policy strategies ( Bespoke , Evolutionary , and Emergent ).
In an idealized world , decision makers would set clear goals , gather all necessary relevant information related to the problem and desired solutions , and then devise alternatives to meet the goals .
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