Journal on Policy & Complex Systems Volume 1, Number 1, Spring 2014 | Page 32

Policy and Complex Systems
3 . Policy for a Complex World : A Journey

Is the policy so complex that it is better for

the agents to address it through adaptation , rather than through the policy owner trying to specify a solution in advance ?
The realization of complex policies is best viewed as a non-linear and recursive journey , with Process Governance , WAVE Planning , and Stewardship employed to help manage the emergent journey .
Complex policies are often unfamiliar and emergent , and there is often little agreement on what the policy should look like , let alone how the policy can or should be realized ( in areas as diverse as sustainability , crime , employment , public health , energy security , etc .).
From a risk management perspective , there is a strong case for letting the multiple agents within the adaptive systems-of-systems handle the complexity , rather than policyowners trying to specify a specific solution in advance .
Policyowners are more effective in setting high-level goals and delivery solutions that can be progressively adapted to an emergent policy environment . For example , technically-oriented policies are generally better implemented by using new technologies strategically and leveraging-off legacy systems , rather than implementing a full replacement of all legacy technologies . Through using an emergent strategy , policyowners can assess the effectiveness of the inserted technology , and then progressively review new technologies for insertion .
Ongoing achievements in science , medicine , and engineering have created high expectations within the broader community as to the effectiveness of reductionist strategies . While the scientific method is very effective in many areas , its reductionist and deductive-based approaches are notably unsuccessful in designing and implementing complex policies .
A major contemporary risk to policyowners is that individuals and organizations will behave asymmetrically in response to policy and laws so as to avoid and / or reduce the effect of policies and laws . Commercial businesses and professional advisers have made an art of manipulating the wording used in laws and policies in order to avoid or distort their intent .
In our complex world , the most effective policies and laws define high level outcomes that are difficult to misinterpret or distort , and that establish a process where the detailed operation of the policy is progressively changed to counteract any asymmetric behaviors used to circumvent the intent of the policy .
It is difficult to standardize complex policy outcome , due to the high level of emergence ; the policyowners ’ lack of directive control over implementation ; and multiple delivery agents . Complex policy is not simply formulated and then executed ( Refer to Figure 8 ). it is designed and constantly re-designed by multiple players throughout the system , as many multiple agents working together within the systems-of-systems adapt the policy ’ s outcomes .
Therefore policyowners need to :
�� design complex policies with high-level goals that are resilient to the level of emergence that is likely to occur ; and
�� establish a governance system :
�� where the implementation and delivery strategy is purposefully designed to take a major role in shaping the policy over its lifecycle ; and �� to oversee the ways in which the policy is being adapted by the multi-
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