Policy and Complex Systems - Volume 1 Issue 1 - Spring 2014
The Price of Big Science : Saturation or Abundance in Scientific Publishing ?
Caroline S . Wagner , Ph . D . A , Dae Joong Kim B
Science policymaking is facing a rapidly changing landscape . Rapid growth and globalization of science are complicated by the proliferation of venues for publications , which continue to grow in number at an exponential rate . The growth rate is nullifying the hypothesis about its trajectory put forth by Derek de Solla Price ( 1961 and 1963 ); he suggested that science would reach a saturation point . In fact , the current system is proliferating , not just in numbers of published articles but also in the geographic location where knowledge is produced and in the types of venues for output ( such as open source ). The knowledge production system shares features with complex systems , so we propose a complex systems model to test the hypothesis . The model is designed along a stock and flow relationship between knowledge creation and obsolescence that tracks closely with actual numbers . The model further suggests that the publication system will continue to see exponential growth , and with this , may have experienced a phase shift from operating under conditions of scarcity to one of abundance . Abundant systems are characterized by openness , collaboration , and sharing — all features seen in contemporary science . Policymakers may need to shift policy toward scanning and integrating abundant knowledge to account for its proliferation and distribution across the growing knowledge landscape .
Keywords : science policy ; knowledge production ; complex systems modeling ; collaboration
Introduction
The output of public investment in science and technology is contained in published articles , notes , and letters in scientific journals . These communications can be assumed to be part of a communications system with dynamics . The system has features of complex systems in that it is nonlinear , it has multiple agents competing for resources , and the resulting organization is emergent . Policymakers would like to understand , predict , measure , and control the processes in order to ensure that benefits accrue to intended beneficiaries . The complex system of scientific publication remains poorly understood , however . This article addresses this gap .
The eco-system of scientific communications has a number of levels , including
A
Dr . Caroline S . Wagner holds the Ambassador Milton A . and Roslyn Z . Wolf Chair in International Affairs at the John Glenn School of Public Affairs , The Ohio State University , Columbus , OH . She earned her doctorate from the University of Amsterdam in Science and Technology Dynamics , her Master of Arts degree in Science , Technology and Public Policy from George Washington University , and a Bachelor of Arts from
Trinity College , Washington , DC .
B
Dae Joong Kim is a lecturer at Dongguk University in the Republic of Korea . Mr . Kim is a specialist in complex systems and public policy .
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