Policy and Complex Systems
conflict will be resolved , the alliance B will naturally dissolve and the original ethnics and religious frustrations will be again active , thus fueling new instabilities .
It should be noted that in reality the Syrian system is larger and more complex accommodating many minor religious communities and some large communities made up of several different ethnic groups that often disfavor each other . An example can be Kurds and native Syrian Arabs who belong to the Sunnis community . Nevertheless , the system of religious communities presented in the above example provides a simplified picture , which already exhibits the main instabilities and the complexity of the Syrian conflict .
It should be noted that in reality the Syrian system is larger and more complex accommodating many minor religious communities and some large communities made up of several different ethnic groups that often disfavor each other . An example can be Kurds and native Syrian Arabs who belong to the Sunnis community . Nevertheless , the system of religious communities presented in the above example provides a simplified picture , which already exhibits the main instabilities and the complexity of the Syrian conflict .
4.2 Dissolution of The Soviet Global Alliance — A Semi-Stable System
The case of a semi-stable system , a system where one of the coalitions remains stable while the other fluctuates due to the dissolution of the corresponding global alliance , can be illustrated with the collapse of the Soviet alliance .
In the middle of the last century , the Eastern alliance represented by the Warsaw Pact and the Western alliance represented by NATO were the leading opposing global alliances in Europe . In the seventh decade of its existence , the Soviet Union , which held the Warsaw Pact nations together , mainly by the military – political factor , collapsed after the Warsaw Pact was dissolved . This event led to the dissolution of the entire Eastern alliance and , as a result , to the fragmentation of the Soviet coalition , dropping back the formerly unified countries into their respective primary ethnic hostility . In contrast to the Eastern sector , the coalition of NATO remained stable .
Figure 4 illustrates schematically the main features of the systems made up of Soviet and NATO countries with the collapse of the Soviet global alliance . In both sides negative triangles can be identified as for instance Georgia – Armenia – Russia on the Soviet side and Germany – Italy – France on the NATO side .
To highlight the associated phenomena we present the case of three countries on each side denoted respectively by { 1 S
, 2 S , 3 S
} for both the Soviet part and the Far East countries and by { 4 N
, 5 N , 6 N
} for the Western Europe part . Intermediary countries of Eastern Europe such as Yugoslavia and Bosnia are denoted by { 7 I
}.
Primarily , before the Soviet concept has been implemented in the region , the system of countries { 1 S
, 2 S , 3 S
, 4 N , 5 N
, 6 N
, 7 I
} formed two independent groups each having negative circuits of propensities , as shown in Figure 4a . Then , the Soviet global alliance S and the opposing NATO global alliance N were established .
In our illustration , the countries ’ natural belongings were distributed as follows . Countries { 1 S
, 2 S , 3 S
} as well as 7 I belonged to S , while { 4 N , 5 N
, 6 N
} belonged to N . The resulting externally induced interactions are shown in Figure 4b in bold font . The associated additional propensities stabilize the originally unstable systems into two opposing coalitions { 1 S
, 2 S , 3 S
, 7 I } and { 4 N , 5 N
, 6 N }.
102