Journal on Policy & Complex Systems Vol. 2, Issue 2, Fall 2015 - Page 5

Journal on Policy and Complex Systems - Fall 2015, Volume 2, Number 2 The Freedom of Constraint: A Multilevel Simulation Model of Politics, Fertility and Economic Development Zining Yang Division of Politics and Economics, Claremont Graduate University, Claremont, CA; Tom & Vi Zapara School of Business, La Sierra University, Riverside, CA Email: {zining.yang} Abstract Government policy choices impact economic, fertility, and political decisions across generations, which can dramatically affect a country’s development path. Combining system dynamics and agent-based modeling with game theory approaches in a complex adaptive system, we formalize a multilevel simulation framework of the Politics of Fertility and Economic Development (POFED) to understand the relationship between political, economic, and demographic change over time. We first validate the original system dynamics model with the latest data and updated political capacity measurement. Then we fuse these endogenous attributes with noncooperative game theory in an agent-based framework to simulate the interactive political economic dynamics of individual intra-societal transactions. Finally, we connect the macro and micro levels by merging system dynamics and agent-based components. This work explains that a microlevel human agency can act, react, and interact, thus driving macrolevel dynamics, as well as how macro structures provide political, social, and economic environments that constrain or incentivize microlevel human behavior. The simulation result is compared against real-world data, suggesting policy implications for society to achieve development goals. Keywords: complex adaptive systems, economic development, political capacity, demographic change, agent-based model, system dynamics, game theory 3 doi: 10.18278/jpcs.2.2.2