September 2016
It ’ s Nativism :
Explaining the Drivers of Trump ’ s Popular Support
correspondingly resulted in increased nativist public opinion and restrictive legislation . 10 Additionally , the 2011 birth cohort was the first in American history to be more non-white than white . This is significant , in my mind , because it reinforces among many Americans the profound demographic changes at hand and their impact on cultural identity at the level of symbols and meaning .
Finally , many also understand Trump and this more global nativist phenomenon as new and on the rise . On this point , the public opinion data tells a nuanced story : support or belief in nativism is not on the rise . Instead , it has been relatively flat lined or even been declining over the last 20 years depending on the question wording . Pew data suggests that long-term it is on the decline as Millennials are much less nativist than older generations .
That said , nativist attitudes and anti-immigrant rhetoric has become more polarized politically . Twenty years ago
Republicans and Democrats were about equally likely to be nativist . Nowadays , Republicans are almost twice as likely to hold such beliefs compared to Democrats ( see table below ).
In political terms , whereas nativism was a non-issue a quarter century ago , it will increasingly play a role in the political arena for the foreseeable future .
Ultimately , the key question here is what nativism means for the Republican Party . It is too early to say whether or not we are witnessing a wholesale party realignment . I think not . That said , in the short to medium term , the nativist backlash could have profound effects on both the Republican Party and American politics in general . The exact outcome , however , is still to be determined .
In the long term , nativism looks a losing proposition as younger generations look to be less nativist than older ones . Between now and then American politics should be a wild ride .
Question wording : ‘ When jobs are scarce , employers should prioritize hiring people of this country over immigrants ’
70 Republicans
63
57
55 55
64
50 50
42
60 Independants 56 All Americans
45 Democrats
1995 2011 2016
Source : World Values Survey 1995 and 2011 ; Ipsos 2016
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