September 2016
It ’ s Nativism :
Explaining the Drivers of Trump ’ s Popular Support
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Taken as a whole , this analysis strongly suggests that Trump finds his strength in a Republican base that is highly nativist in orientation . And this , on the whole , explains his support .
On a secondary note , the empirical evidence also shows that voters who are more socially conservative and with populist tendencies also support him . Only on a tertiary level do other factors — both ideological and demographic — play a role .
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Model 1 Trump among Reps * |
Model 2 Republicans ** |
Model 3 Trump *** |
DO WE FIND SIMILAR TRENDS WITH DIFFERENT METHODS ? WHAT DO WE FIND WITH BAYES NET ?
Nativism 100 % 100 % 100 % System is Broken 90 % 90 % 48 % Authoritarianism 45 % 25 % 20 % No Abortion 1 % 62 % 19 %
Bayes Net Analysis
The simple answer is yes ; we do find similar trends . It ’ s all about nativism !
There are many versions of Bayesian network analysis — all , though , attempt to determine the underlying multivariate structure of the data . Such approaches , in turn , are simulation-based and wouldn ’ t be possible if it weren ’ t for the advent of cheap computing power .
I employ a proprietary approach developed at Ipsos , known as Ipsos Bayes Net , or IBN 8 . Like other Bayesian network approaches , IBN is a simulation-based method which performs hundreds of bootstrap samples . Ultimately , the model tests all possible interactions among the variables and then estimates the impact of each factor on the dependent variable controlling for all other factors . The IBN impact measures are like unstandardized regression coefficients and can be thought of in relative terms to determine the size of the impacts .
Again , for easy perusal , I have set Nativism at 100 % and all other factors indexed to Nativism . So a value greater than
Fear of Others 26 % 21 % 18 % American Dream 33 % 1 % 14 %
Government intervention
Worse off than Parents
0 % 31 % 3 %
23 % 3 % 19 %
100 % means that the given factor has a greater impact on support for Trump than Nativism . In contrast , if the value is less than 100 %, it means that the factor has a weaker impact on support than Nativism does . Additionally , if a measure , let ’ s say Authoritarianism , has an impact value of 25 %, this means that Nativism has a 4x greater impact on support for Trump than Authoritarianism ( 4 = 100 / 25 ).
* Vote for Trump among Republicans ** Identify as Republican *** Vote for Trump All Americans
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Egner and Timpone ( 2012 ) DRIVERS ANALYSIS AND SIMULATION AT IPSOS : POV Ipsos Science Centre , August 2012 ..
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