September 2016
It ’ s Nativism :
Explaining the Drivers of Trump ’ s Popular Support
Introduction
A year ago who would have believed it — Trump the nominee for the Republican party !
For the longest time , most expected Trump would implode . But to the prognosticators chagrin this did not happen .
I personally began to question my own assumptions about Trump during the summer of 2015 . At that time , Trump was in the middle of a vitriolic barrage against immigrants , or more precisely , “ illegal criminal immigrants ” as he would now argue .
Such a strategy , by all accounts , ran counter to what most would consider best political practices ; his rhetoric should have killed his political pretensions . It didn ’ t ; quite the reverse actually . This was quite disconcerting for analysts like me , and strongly suggested that there was more to him than spin and showbiz .
WHY ? WHAT WAS SPECIAL ABOUT TRUMP AND HIS MESSAGE ? WHAT ABOUT HIM RESONATED ?
Many analysts tried to understand the reasons for this sustainability . The explanations vary . Some see Trump ’ s success through economic lenses : that he resonates with an emerging “ precariat class ” or “ squeezed middle class ” who are losing out in an increasingly globalized and automated economy .
Others argue that Trump supporters are actually authoritarian in nature and thus desire order and certainty in a world full of threats . Trump is an authoritarian ; ergo , authoritarians support him . This argument seems to have had the most widespread exposure and acceptance among analysts .
Still others believe that Trump appeals to the populist , anti-elite tendencies of voters . Key here is the view that when a significant chunk of the population believes the system is broken , the environment is ripe for a populist adventurer like Trump .
Finally , at Ipsos , we believed from October 2015 that Trump ’ s true strength lay very simply in his anti-immigrant rhetoric . That Trump ’ s strong “ America first ”, nativist 1 narrative resonates with the Republican base and , if toned down , could find broader popular appeal . Put differently , Trump taps into a deep fear that America ’ s best days are behind it ; a yearning for what was ; and a fear of the “ other ”.
So what explains Trump ? Which of these factors , if any , hold water ?
To date , these explanations have not been put simultaneously to the statistical test in a multivariate context . When controlling for each factor , which ones still have a significant impact on support for Trump ? And which ones ultimately are just spurious correlates ?
Data and Measures
To answer these questions , we conducted five polls on the subject from December 28th , 2015 through April 16th , 2016 . This has been an iterative process where we have tested and tweaked our measures over time . Much of this research has been published in one way or another . In the spirit of transparency , we have posted the topline for each of these polls , available via links in the footnote 2 below .
1 the policy of or predisposition towards protecting the interests of native-born or established inhabitants against those of immigrants 2 2,012 adults 18 +, Dec 28-29 , 2015 . Next four all in 2016 : 1,005 adults 18 +, Jan 26-27 ; 1,005 adults 18 +, Feb 10-11 ; 1,005 adults 18 +, April 1-4 ;
1,006 adults 18 +, April 15-16 ;
2