Ipsos in SiMa Ipsos | Curiosity February 2017 | Page 28

Region
Country
Ease of Doing Business
Opportunities
Challenges
Africa
South Africa
2017 Ranking

74 th

2017 DTF Score

65.20

Brexit will enable bilateral trade negotiations , providing an opportunity to agree better terms for South Africa , the UK ’ s largest market in Africa . This could catalyse trade between the countries .
South Africa , the largest economy in Africa , has the region ’ s most sophisticated infrastructure and serves as the most popular gateway into Africa for multinationals , including many British firms .
The British pound ’ s weakening against the rand will likely drive demand for UK products and services .
South Africa ’ s key challenges are low growth , continued labour unrest , structural unemployment , severe inequalities , and low business and consumer confidence .
Foreign direct investment from the UK is likely to slow as many British firms adopt a wait-and-see approach until the ramifications of Brexit become clearer .
Movement of goods will be disrupted in the short term once negotiations start for new trade agreements with Britain .
Kenya
2017 Ranking

92 nd

2017 DTF Score

61.22

Imports from the UK ( including used cars , machinery and pharmaceuticals ) will be cheaper relative to those from key source markets , such as China and Japan , due to the weakening British pound .
Potential to form more favourable bilateral trade agreements and cooperation with the UK away from restrictive EU regulations .
To compete against the EU , Britain will likely develop more flexible and friendlier business relations ( eg , introducing tax breaks for specific investment types ). This will create new opportunities for Kenyan businesses to invest in the UK .
With the mid-term depreciation of the British pound , UK demand for imports ( such as agriculture and tea from Kenya ) is likely to slow-down .
If the UK introduces protectionist trade policies , domestic companies will benefit through reduced competition from Kenyan imports especially in the agribusiness sector .
We are likely to see a decrease in tourist arrivals from the UK due to increased cost of travel as the pound weakens .
Nigeria
2017 Ranking

169 th

2017 DTF Score

44.63

Increased demand for imports from the UK . A weakening British pound will drive demand for imports of popular UK goods and services in Nigeria .
Agricultural trade should improve as Britain re-examines policies previously regulated by the EU , most notably the Common Agricultural Policy . This could increase trade of agricultural products from Sub Sahara Africa ( including Nigeria ) with the UK .
The UK is likely to look into existing trade agreements with Nigeria that were negotiated under the EU . This could result in a wider and more diverse partnership between Britain and Nigeria , one which would provide long-term opportunities for British firms seeking opportunities in the country .
Decreased foreign investment into Nigeria from UK based companies due to a slowing UK economy on the back of Brexit and potential disruption as the UK renegotiates trade agreements .
The UK is expected to enforce tougher immigration policies that are likely to affect Nigerians travelling to Britain and an estimated 2 million Nigerians already living in the UK . Those sectors of the UK economy reliant on immigrant labour will see production costs rise .
Investment in Britain by Nigerian businesses ( particularly those trading in oil ) is likely to shrink given that trade agreements between EU countries and non-EU countries are negotiated by the European commission . The UK no longer offers full access to the lucrative EU market .
Ipsos Business Consulting Creating Opportunity | 16