International Journal on Criminology Volume 4, Number 2, Winter 2016 | Page 74

Telling Tales with Inspector PredPol
the immutable and non-negotiable part of any prediction—which the cyber Madoffs
and their devotees are careful not to mention. It is unlikely, too, that things will get
any better in the future as systems such as PredPol are gradually upgraded. Quite the
opposite, in fact: the situation can only get worse. Experts are of the opinion that socalled
predictive software and algorithms have a high capacity for “pre-formatting”
and influencing reality. This boosts their apparent validity and persuades customers
that everything is working fine. Meanwhile, out there in the field and in actual life,
where the real thugs and drug dealers are on the make, nothing much has changed.
This technological illusion, this crime-prediction software, is based on nothing
more than guesswork, and is rooted in a simple idea: what happened yesterday will
happen again tomorrow. A gang was at work in such-and-such a neighborhood on
Monday. So, on Tuesday we will set up an ambush where the software tells us to,
and—hey, presto, we’ll bust ’em for sure! But this has not got anything to do with
predicting and everything to do with circular reasoning.
PredPol-type algorithms are also used for an entirely different type of service:
on-line dating. Here is what an expert has to say: “People pay for these dating services
but, after taking a closer look at them, the algorithms that are supposed to help you find
your ideal partner almost certainly do not work.” Now, after on-line lovers, the cyber
Madoffs are targeting the police and politicians. Welcome to the club for suckers.
4. Is it Possible, in a Wider Sense, To Predict Everything?
The field of prediction is one of the worst excesses of this cyber propaganda.
Mainframe computers, proper algorithms, big data—wrap it all up in the right system
and you will be able to predict anything and everything. So, thanks to Wikipedia for
instance, and the right mathematical model, we can (it is claimed) accurately predict
the success of a film at the box office 1 month in advance. And the same recipe can
also be used in the food industry for new sodas and sandwiches.
Some gurus have even declared that by 2030 we will have global precognition
machines that will rid the world of all its negative clutter. According to the software
sales reps, specialists already have the power to predict whether you are going to
“click, buy, lie or die.” These reps argue that anticipating human behavior means we
can take better decisions, dispel financial risk, strengthen the public health system,
destroy spam, stimulate sales and, naturally enough, lead the charge against crime.
(No details yet about an anti-worm treatment or the ability to cure scrofula. But do not
give up hope.)
Let us shift focus to crime prediction in particular. Since around 2010, a
burgeoning number of articles in the English-speaking print and electronic media have
been spinning the same story: soon we will be able to predict crime in the same way
that we can forecast the weather. Specialized software such as PredPol will enable the
police to predict offenses. In fact, the system is already up and running in California!
The papers tell us that, when the software was tested, recorded crime dropped by 12%
and robberies by 27%. And now everyone’s rushing to jump on the bandwagon: not
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