International Journal on Criminology Volume 3, Number 2, Fall 2015 | Page 7

International Journal on Criminology - Fall 2015, Volume 3, Number 2
The Cyclical Evolution of Homicides and Security
Maurice Cusson A
In a cycle, a series of events are repeated in the same order and return to their
starting point. Between 1900 and 2013, homicide rates in Canada and the
United States fluctuated as follows: 1) from 1900 to 1930, homicides soared,
during a period of economic growth, social euphoria, an expanding organized
crime and police corruption; 2) between 1931 and 1955, homicide rates
declined during a period of severe economic recession, tight social controls
and improvements in private and public security; 3) between 1956 and 1989,
homicides skyrocketed during the postwar boom, while social controls were
eased and the police became more bureaucratic; 4) as of 1990, homicide rates
have fallen in a context of an ageing population and innovations in policing.
The article ends by offering a general theory of crime rate cycle. The model
rests on three hypotheses: that crime adapts to security and vice versa; that
security excesses in one direction lead to excesses in the opposite direction;
and that one phase in the cycle of crime is the cause of the phase that follows.
Keywords: cycle, crime rates, security, homicides, organized crime, police,
private security, corruption, social controls, cyclical theory.
A
cycle may be defined as an ongoing sequence of changes that follow one another
in the same order as in the cycle of the seasons. In economics, no one disputes
the existence of recurrent business cycles: a phase of growth is followed by a
phase of recession, which begins with a crisis followed by a contraction and, lastly, the
recovery that marks the beginning of a new cycle. Economists seek an explanation of
one phase of a cycle in the preceding. A crisis is caused by the prosperity and frenetic
speculation of the preceding phase. A growth spurt causes a crisis and then a recession.
Are there cycles of crime, with repeated sequences of periods of security
and insecurity, order and disorder, alternating in a regular pattern? Examples of the
cyclical development of crime are rare, but a few can be identified, like the evolution of
homicides in New York City during the last two centuries.
Monkkonen (2001) finds three long waves in the New York City homicide rate
between 1800 and 2000. The first peaked in 1864 after a lull between 1820 and 1830.
The second came to a head in 1931 after a respite between 1890 and 1900, while the
third was a tidal wave that hit the city with rates that reached an unprecedented height
A
International Center for Comparative Criminology, Université de Montréal
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