International Journal on Criminology Volume 3, Number 2, Fall 2015 | Page 15

The Cyclical Evolution of Homicides and Security
Deprived of resources, the police staff is overwhelmed. This lead to a rise in the numbers
of unsolved, unprosecuted, untried, and unpunished crimes.
2. Summit.
In phase 2, crime ceases to rise and remains high. An increase in crimes sets
in motion a critical-mass process: activity is self-sustaining once the frequency of that
activity passes a certain minimum level” (Schelling 1978). During this phase, however,
there is increasing exasperation, and indignation at proliferating crime. The losses
and suffering caused by so many crimes and offenses are felt more and more acutely,
particularly in urban areas, where the worst crime is concentrated. Some clamor for
harsher penalties. Nevertheless, responses are gradually discovered. Too much crime
heightens the vigilance of security professionals. This paves the way to the next phase of
the cycle.
3. Decline.
Crime declines with progress in security. In the Seventeenth and Eighteenth
centuries France, the establishment of a powerful police organization was followed by a
decline in homicides. In the first half of the nineteenth century, the creation of London’s
Metropolitan Police drove down crime. In Canada and the United States, the expansion
of private security, with technological progress and the increased problem-solving
ability of the police, cut crime in the last decade of the twentieth century (Cusson 2010).
Crime that is deemed excessive mobilizes citizens, police officers, and judges
to make joint efforts to restore peace and tranquility. Victimizations and fear drive
victims to protect themselves and take precautions. Ultimately, crime produces its own
antibodies.
Once a decline is under way, it drives down repeat crimes and makes punishment
more certain, because the law-enforcement agencies are no longer swamped. When a
decline in crime begins, it is self-sustaining. Because there are fewer infractions, the
process of repeat crimes slows down: fewer copycat crimes, fewer differential associations,
and less repeat victimization. Less overwhelmed than before, police officers and judges
find the time needed to solve problems.
Too much crime kills crime. Crime tends to concentrate in hot spots where it
becomes so rife that, at the end, there is no victim or target to be found. Just as too
many foxes eat so many hares that they cut off their own supply, too many very active
criminals in a given area drive out storekeepers and asset owners. Those that do stay
build their defenses and take extra precautions: before long, there will be little left to
steal and few people to attack.
Crime devours its own children: in areas frequented by criminals, the examples of
friends who are in jail, injured, destroyed by drugs, or murdered will act as a powerful
deterrent to their younger peers and make parents more vigilant.
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