EDITOR ’ S COMMENT
ISSUE 55 FEBRUARY / MARCH 2017
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EDITOR ’ S COMMENT
Coming up Trumps ?
Predictably , given this is the first time I ’ ve had a chance to write a column since the United States elected Donald Trump to its most senior office , the next 550 words will be devoted to speculation about what his rise to power is likely to mean for forestry professionals .
The main focus has rightly been on Trump ’ s plan to spend some $ 1 trillion on infrastructure . While there is likely to be precious little wood used for his famous wall proposed to separate the US from its southern neighbour , Mexico , most building projects will be using a combination of wood products in vast amounts , particularly newly-developed , high-strength , engineered structural wood products .
The US forestry sector , particularly in its north , is theoretically in a position of strength , as it will all of a sudden have the responsibility of supplying new development ahead of imported suppliers .
Likewise , US-based equipment manufacturers , led by heavyweight John Deere , will be responsible for arming US contractors for what is expected to be an expanded market ; while sawmills will also be mainly locally supplied .
This is obviously great news for these groups .
On the flip side , there are obvious dangers to this approach .
Most immediately , one must feel for the Canadian forestry sector , which faces an uncertain period surrounding its key export market while the reality of Trump ’ s policies take shape .
And anyone who hoped perhaps he may be all mouth and no trousers when promising to put America first , need only look at his persistence in pursing his immigration promises in the face of international and legal opposition for evidence he is a man of conviction .
From a wider industry perspective , we may also be looking down the barrel of a period during which it becomes more difficult to innovate and collaborate across borders . The international industry has seen a number of company combinations that have seen European and North American innovation join forces for industry-reshaping results .
Trade partnerships have also allowed Europe ’ s overproducing biomass sector feed a US energy market that has been , until now , in overdrive to become greener . These partnerships have been thrown up in the air by the election result .
Beyond these threats is the wider economic issue of Trump starting an international trade war . Such an event would bring world trade to a near stand still , slowing GDP to a crawl and therefore hampering the need for development materials , such as wood .
A trade war is predicted by an alarming number of stakeholders as a relatively likely outcome from Trump ’ s near-term economic stimulus policies .
In Davos recently at the World Economic Forum , Chinese President Xi Jinping warned of the need to embrace globalisation and free trade at the same time Trump was readying himself for his inauguration and a period of enforcement for his protectionist , ‘ America First ’, policy .
You know you are living in a truly odd world when the head of the Chinese Communist Party is campaigning for free trade and the leader of the ‘ Free World ’ is talking about slapping taxes on any company looking to import its goods into the US .
In such a world , it is difficult predict anything , but in the International Forest Industries offices here in the UK , we are betting on a short-term period of growth for foresters followed by a prolonged period of uncertainty , at best .
Enjoy !
Chris Cann Editor
4 International Forest Industries | FEBRUARY 2017 / MARCH 2017