International Dealer News IDN 147 February/March 2019 - Page 6

STAT ZONE <<< Continued from cover EU motorcycle registrations 2010-2018 +13.27% 1,009,678 1,014,775 1,000,000 -8.98% 923,640 -10.99% 822,172 800,000 +9.89% 1,004,063 +7.29% 803,122 700,000 EU motorcycle registrations 2010-2018 - adjusted for Euro 3/4 impact +3.12% 1,004,063 1,014,775 1,000,000 -8.98% 923,640 +10.99% 891,369 900,000 -10.99% 822,172 800,000 +6.54% 949,678 +2.53% 973,723 +7.29% 803,122 -8.96% 748,529 700,000 Data source: ACEM +51.46% 47,179 40,000 +109.93% 31,150 30,000 20,000 +15.69% +42.28% 11,457 9,903 +29.51% 14,838 -24.54% 6,960 +1.99% 9,223 -9.50% 913,723 -8.96% 748,529 50,000 9,043 +10.99% 891,369 900,000 Combined EU 2011-2018 electric PTW registrations 10,000 Data source: ACEM additional 50,000 to 65,000 new motorcycles not appearing. A more realistic market performance for 2017 would be in the region of +2.53% growth at around 973,723 new units ‘sold’ (as opposed to registered) instead of the 913,723 that ACEM’s statistics had to report. Similarly, a safer ‘guesstimate’ would be that, in fact, 2018 ‘only’ saw growth over 2017 of some 30,340 genuinely additional ‘new’ unit sales [IDN # 141] for around +3.12% growth. This means that rather than +13.27% growth in 2016 being followed by a -9.50% decline in 2017 and +9.89% growth in 2018, a more reliable picture shows that since the market bottomed out in 2013, growth of +7.29% in 2014 and +10.99% in 2015 has slowed to +6.54% growth in 2016, followed by +2.53% in 2017 and +3.12% for 2018. The question being put by many market observers and analysts is whether or not the market is, in fact, stalling? The growth curve is certainly flattening out. The 2018 ACEM registration statistics also reflect the ongoing softening of Europe’s moped market and have shown the consequences of the one year later Euro 3 to Euro 4 crossover that took place at the end of 2017 and first months of 2018. Total moped registrations for EU markets in 2018 are recorded as 273,645 units, down by -31.49% (-125,775 units). France is the largest market for mopeds, with 72,940 new machines registered (-32.04%/ -34.382 units), followed by the Netherlands at 58,969 units (-32.08%/-27,857 units) and Germany a distant third at 25,634 (-22.91%/-7,620 units). Belgium is the fourth largest new moped market (21,391 units), followed by Italy (21,326 units), Poland (16,410 units), Spain (16,073 units) and Austria (11,866 units); all were down (-44.62% in the case of Poland, at 13,223 units). Total PTW registrations in EU markets are put at 1,277,708 units (-2.70%) for 2018, meaning the overall two- wheeler market has grown by +13.23% percent in the five years since the 2013 low of 1,128,396 total units. In NEV (New Energy Vehicle) PTW terms (E-Bikes etc), Europe was worth 47,179 new registrations in 2018, up by +16,029 units (+51.46%) after seeing growth of 16,312 units in 2017 (+109.93%) from the 14,838 registrations recorded in 2016. The market for NEVs has grown from just 6,960 units in 2013. Sweden 2018: total PTW registrations +7.06 percent The latest data available from the motorcycle industry trade association in Sweden (McRF) shows new motorcycle registrations being down by - 10.83 percent in 2018 (at 10,279 units), but as elsewhere 6 in Europe, the picture is distorted by regulatory changes, Niklas Kristoffersson, CEO of McRF, pointing out a small net overall increase in the 36-month 2016-2018 period. In moped terms similar issues INTERNATIONAL DEALER NEWS - FEBRUARY/MARCH 2019 are clouding the picture in Sweden, with Euro 3/Euro 4 transition happening 12 months later for small displacement machines than for motorcycles. The official registration statistics put moped registrations at +22.71 percent in Sweden for 2018 (16,165 units), with the total PTW count +7.06 percent on 26,444 new machines registered in total in Sweden in 2018 – the highest figure for several years. www.idnmag.com