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Newspapers and magazines will see
revenues decline over the next five years. In
2017, total newspaper revenue fell by 2.9%
to R8.6 billion and by 2022, it is set to drop
to R7 billion in South Africa.
Despite 24/7 access to media and
five different segments – books, magazines,
newspapers, OOH and video games – will all
decline to 2022.
Within this overall increase, the fastest
revenue growth will be in the digitally driven
segments. Virtual Reality will lead the way,
albeit from a low base, at a five-year CAGR entertainment, the appeal of shared, live
experiences still attracts audiences. Music
events still draw large crowds, with ticket
sales set to see an 8% CAGR to 2022, helped
by major tours from popular crowd-pulling
acts in 2018.
Recovering admissions and rising ticket
prices, together with improved offerings,
will see box office revenue deliver modest
growth at a 3.5% CAGR through 2022.
South African audiences are prepared to
pay a premium to watch big-budget films
with surround sound, vibrating seats,
temperature change and strobe lights. Radio
continues to have a solid listener base in
South Africa, and a weekly reach of 91%.
Radio revenue is projected to rise 3.9% CAGR
over the forecast period to surpass the R5
billion mark in 2022.
Chat apps and social platforms,
meanwhile, have become an increasingly
important part of day-to-day life for
consumers. As usage and entertainment rise,
key players from across the E&M industry
have teamed up with these platforms,
growing them into ‘one-stop shops’ for
consumer needs.
The report shows that advertising in
the E&M industry was mostly affected by
South Africa’s economic environment, with
cautious growth of just 1.9% year-on-year.
An improvement is expected to 2022, with a
3.3% CAGR bringing total advertising revenue
to R41.5 billion. New technologies and
devices, like Artificial Intelligence (AI), Virtual
and Augmented Reality, voice-based smart
home devices and virtual assistants look set
to drive innovation in online advertising on a
global scale in the coming years.
of 55% to reach R671 billion in 2022, from
R75 billion in 2017.
“The exceptional growth in VR reflects
the excitement in this space,” added
Myburgh. “VR devices and experiences are
in the early stages of being accepted by the
mainstream, as VR now emerges as a viable
long-term platform for unique, immersive
experiences, attracting major investment
from media and technology companies eager
to seize a share of this fast-growing market.”
After a breakthrough year, South
Africa’s total e-sports revenue is forecast
to rise from R29 million in 2017 to R104
million in 2022, a CAGR of 29%. A host of
high-profile events in 2017 helped to propel
e-sport further towards the mainstream,
and several similar events have been and
are being held this year.
30
It’s clear we’re in
a rapidly evolving
media ecosystem
that’s experiencing
Convergence 3.0.
to become the third-highest contributing
consumer segment.
There is a striking difference in growth
between digital and non-digital revenue,
which have CAGRs of 11.4% and 1.8%
respectively. The non-digital elements of
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A booming social sector is driving strong
growth in the video games segment. Total
revenue is forecast to rise from R3.1 billion
in 2017 to R6.2 billion in 2022, a CAGR of
15%. TV and video will continue to be a
major driver of consumer spend. Following
growth at 4.8% CAGR over the forecast
period, the total TV market will be worth
R40.8 billion by 2022.
The shift from physical to digital media
has been one of the core drivers of the global
and local E&M market for many years. But
different media segments have experienced
strongly contrasting patterns of digitisation.
In some cases, consumers have been quick
to drop physical formats and embrace
digital alternatives at the first opportunity.
Although the growth rate for physical books
is moderate, it is notable that books are
performing far better than any other non-
digital sector.
“Permanency and collectability may be
the reason for this,” explained Myburgh.
“Books are collectibles often owned and
displayed for many years, making the loss
of their physical presence more significant.
Although books currently seem to have the
best prospects of any physica l media format,
they are, like every other media segment,
just one disruptive digital competitor away
from major upheaval.”