INGENIEUR
INGENIEUR
Aircraft Demand
During the Le Bourget air show in Paris , in June 2017 , both Airbus and Boeing released their market forecasts for the following 20 years ( 2017-2036 ), Airbus ’ s Global Market Forecast and Boeing ’ s Current Market Outlook , taking into account traffic forecasts . Table 1 is a comparison of the two forecasts with respect to number of passenger aircraft and value of commercial aircraft respectively .
Although the comparison provides an overview of the passenger aircraft market , it hides some of the developing trends for the demand of various aircraft categories . Airbus recognises that there is an overlap between the operations of twin-aisle and single-aisle aircraft types . For example twinaisle aircraft are used more often on routes longer than 2,000nm than single-aisle types which are used on routes shorter than 2,000nm . Clearly capacity needs on shorter sectors is one of the key drivers for the use of twin – aisle types , but there is also evidence that congestion , particularly in Asia is another factor , with many airports in the region operationally constrained .
According to the International Civil Aviation Organisation ( ICAO ), 142 countries added 5 % or more capacity in 2016 than in 2015 . Of these , nearly 80 countries added more than 10 % as shown in Figure 4 . This , combined with traffic
Number of Countries
Figure 4 : 2016 Added Capacity ( Source : Airbus , 2017 )
growth above the long term trend , is driving demand for new aircraft today and into the future . More than simply adding capacity , the world ’ s airlines are also increasingly more efficient in the way that they are using aircraft . Average load factor , that is , the proportion of the seats filled in the aircraft , are at an all-time high at around 80 %. Taking into account growth in average aircraft size , increased average utilization levels as well as higher average load factor , aircraft are an impressive 50 % more productive in terms of traffic today than 20 years ago . A significant improvement has been witnessed from both the airlines ’ operational efficiency and the state of the art aircraft being delivered today .
Table 1 : Comparison in passenger aircraft manufactured by Airbus and Boeing
Types of Aircraft Number of passenger aircraft Value of commercial aircraft Airbus Boeing Airbus Boeing Units % Units % Billion US $ %
Regional Jets 0 0 2370 6 0 0 110 2 Single Aisle 24807 71 29530 74 2439 47 3180 55 Twin Aisle 1 8175 25 8120 20 2243 43 2500 43 Very Large 1184 4 * * 545 10 * *
34166 100 37740 100 5227 100 5970 100
1
: Twin aisle aircraft comprises small twin aisle and intermediate twin aisle aircraft *: Boeing has merged very large aircraft with intermediate twin aisle aircraft into a medium / wide category in the CMO 2017 . Hence very large aircraft has been accounted into twin aisle in the above comparison work .
12 VOL 74 APRIL-JUNE 2018