INGENIEUR
Traffic Forecast
Figure 1: Major Domestic Markets (Source: IATA)
Drivers of Change
Recently, IATA carried out a study of the Future of
the Airline Industry 2035 to identify the key drivers
of change that air transport organisations should
be considering to prepare for future opportunities
and challenges over the next 20 years. The study
consisted of four phases (1) interviews and horizon
scans to identify drivers of change (2) prioritization
of the drivers of change and themes (3) scenario
development and (4) identification of implications
and recommendations. Out of 50 identified forces,
13 of them were classified as having a greater
than average impact and uncertainty. These are:
● ●
Alternative fuels and energy sources,
● ●
Cybersecurity,
● ●
Environmental activism,
● ●
Extreme weather events,
● ●
Geopolitical (in)stability,
● ●
Infectious disease and pandemics,
● ●
International regulation of emissions and
noise pollution,
● ●
Level of Integration along air-industry
supply chain,
● ●
New modes of consumption,
● ●
Price of oil,
● ●
Strength and volatility of the global
economy,
● ●
Tensions between data privacy and
surveillance, and
● ●
Terrorism
6
10
VOL
2018
VOL 74
55 APRIL-JUNE
JUNE 2013
The Asia-Pacific region will lead the world’s air
traffic by 2036 (Airbus’ Global Market Forecast
or GMF 2017). It has been recorded by IATA that
there is a shift towards the East and the biggest
driver of demand will be the Asia-Pacific region as
it is seen to be the source of more than half of new
passengers over the next two decades. Domestic
China air traffic will displace the United States
as the world’s largest aviation market (defined
as traffic to, from and within the country). It has
moved two years closer since last year’s forecast,
as shown in Figure 1.
It is anticipated this will occur around 2022,
through a combination of slightly faster Chinese
growth and slightly reduced growth in the US. The
UK will fall to fifth place, surpassed by India in
2025, and Indonesia in 2030. Thailand and Turkey
will enter the top ten largest markets, while France
and Italy will fall in the rankings to 11 th and 12 th
respectively as shown in Figure 1. In 2036, Asia-
Pacific will dominate with 50% traffic flows as per
Airbus’ GMF 2017 (Figure 2).
However, it should be pointed out that the
above estimated forecast is subject to two main
factors; namely, the level of trade liberalization
and visa facilitation. The above prediction
assumed that both elements are maintained
as of now. If trade protectionism and travel
restrictions are put in place, the benefits of air
connectivity will decline as growth could slow to
2.7%, in other words, 1.1 billion fewer passenger
journeys annually by 2036. Conversely, the
potential benefits of aviation can be greater
if we move towards trade liberalization with an
annual growth rate that could be more than two
percentage points faster than predicted, leading
to a tripling in passenger numbers over the next
20 years, as depicted in Figure 3. Simultaneously,
a contingency plan will be required whereby
the aviation industry should be working closer
with the communities and Governments to
accommodate the predicted growth without
compromising the quality of airport infrastructure,
airport security and cargo handling amongst
others. IATA has been pressing for an urgent
reform in the air traffic management globally in
order to cut delays, costs and emissions.