Ingenieur Vol. 74 Ingenieur Vol 72, April-June 2018 - Page 11

AIR TRANSPORTATION GROWTH: Global and Local Scenarios By Assoc. Prof. Ir. Ts. Dr Abd. Rahim Abu Talib Head of Department Aerospace Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia Dr Nadiir Bheekhun Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Information System and Engineering, Management Science University Ts. Liew Chee Leong Head of Engineering, SR Aviation Sdn Bhd I n the global scenario, air travel, with a growth of 60% over the past 10 years has proved to be resilient to external shocks whether sudden or gradual. It now has two options to deal with passenger growth; firstly intensifying the frequency of flights which requires more operational aircraft, or secondly by increasing aircraft capacity. In 2017 international passenger traffic soared by 7.9% compared with 2016. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects a near doubling by 2036 of the 4 billion air travellers that will fly this year. The prediction is based on a 3.6% average Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) contained in the release of the latest update of the association’s 20-Year Air Passenger Forecast. Such a forecasting tool is necessary for evaluating technologies, approaching future emissions or anticipating capacity constraints. In terms of profitability, it is forecast that the global air transport industry’s net profit will rise to US$38.4 billion in 2018, an improvement from the US$34.5 billion expected net profit in 2017 (revised from a US$31.4 billion forecast in June 2017). IATA predicts that strong demand, improved efficiency and reduced interest payments will help airlines enhance their net profitability in 2018 despite rising costs. 2018 is expected to be the fourth consecutive year of sustainable profits with a return on invested capital (9.4%) exceeding the industry’s average cost of capital (7.4%). 9