Ingenieur Vol 73 ingenieur Jan-March 2018 | Page 57

Figure 7 – Subdivision of Project into Components and Construction Activities in Risk Identification, Assessment and Rating of Risk Factors nature or discipline such as hydrology, hydraulics, geology, geotechnical, structure, mechanical, electrical etc. The process performed in the risk analysis involved the following: ● ● Separating the project into its component parts and functions. ● ● Identifying the construction activity or influence that has potential to impact negatively the design, construction and operation of the project, a third party or the environment (illustrated in Figure 7). ● ● Analysing risks of each factor, its probability of occurrence and consequences. A project risk register describing the risks and source of these risks and the parties responsible for them was drawn up. An assessment of these risks was undertaken by evaluating their potential impact or consequences and their likelihood of occurrence, from which a risk rating was derived. A project risk management plan detailed the initial risk control action to reduce the rating of each risk such that the residual probability and impact was reduced to an acceptable level. The register was under continual review and revision throughout the construction stage. An initial risk control plan with mitigation measures was applied for risks with a medium to high rating, but for those with a low rating, monitoring was sufficient. In cases where the consequences or impact were high but the probability of occurrence was uncertain, a Level 2 risk analysis was undertaken. Level 2 Risk Assessment Altogether 13 risk factors were identified for Level 2 risk assessment as shown in Table 1; their locations are shown in Figure 8. A semi- quantitative risk analysis was conducted. Some risks constituted a threat throughout more than one stage of the project from design, construction, commissioning and operation. Some risks had an impact only at the construction and commissioning stage, while others had an impact on the future operational safety of the dam. The risk reduction measures (that would impact the future performance of the dam) to be adopted during the construction stage were identified. The selection of mitigating options can be more difficult for cases where the probability of failure is low, but the consequences are very high involving potential loss of life, extensive damage to the environment and economic losses. In cases where the decision making process involved several parties a long lead time was required to resolve the issues concerned. Three risk factors identified were determined to require Level 2 detailed analysis, as follows: - Risk to the old dam due to construction of new dam. - Risk to the old dam due to construction of dam raising works. - Risk to pipes at left abutment of new dam adjacent to the Weng Lee Quarry. Level 3 Risk Assessment on Failure of the Existing Dam The existing dam was filled to its full supply level EL 43m at the time of construction of the project. During excavation for the foundation preparation works at the left abutment of the old dam, a concentrated leak was observed in an excavated trench about 100m away from the existing dam. The leak was coming from a thin porous layer of highly weathered granite as shown in Figure 9. The leakage through the existing dam abutment was 55