Figure 2 Global electricity mix 2011, 2035 (New Policies Scenario)
Global Coal-Fired Power Generation
Growth in global coal demand will see a CAGR of
1.05% from 2011 through 2035 under the IEA
Current Policies Scenario (CPS) and a CAGR of
0.46% under the IEA New Policies Scenario (NPS),
which assumes the cautious implementation of
announced policy measures (IEA, 2013c). This is
much lower than the past 25 years, which saw a
2.5% average annual growth rate globally. Coal
demand is forecasted to expand from around 5,390
Mtoe in 2011 to 7,764 Mtoe under the CPS and
6,326 Mtoe under the NPS, by 2035. Regarding the
NPS, two-thirds of this growth occurs in the period
from 2011 to 2020, with demand growing by only
0.4% per year from 2020 to 2035.
Growth in global coal demand for electricity will
continue to rise under the NPS, going from 9,140
TWh of generation in 2011 to 12,312 TWh of
generation in 2035, a CAGR of 1.2%. This growth
rate is less than what was seen between 1990
and 2011, where electricity generation from coal
saw a CAGR of 3.35%.
Over the same period, OECD will see a drop in
coal-fired electricity generation from 3,618 TWh
to 2,775 TWh while non-OECD will increase from
5,522 TWh of coal-fired generation in 2011 to
9,537 TWh in 2035 under the NPS (IEA, 2013c).
The power sector accounts for nearly threequarters of the increase in global coal demand
over the period 2011–2035, even though coal’s
share of global electricity generation sees a
decline of eight percentage points, from 41% to
33%, as many countries continue to diversify their
power mixes (see Figure 2). Despite the drop in
share to 33%, coal will remain the leading source
of electricity generation in 2035. Coal production
today is dominated by non-OECD countries, whose
share of output will continue to rise over the next
24 years (IEA, 2013c).
Why High-Efficiency, Low-Emissions Coal
In order to produce electricity in a more efficient
and cost-effective manner while reducing
emissions, a progression towards HELE coal
generation is essential. A key metric for comparing
various electricity generation technologies based
on overall competitiveness, including HELE and
traditional coal-fired generation as well as VRE,
is LCOE. The LCOE of HELE power generation
technologies, including supercritical and USC,
decreases as the CFPP efficiency increases,
meaning less coal is needed to generate the same
amount of electricity. In general, these HELE CFPPs
consume up to 15% less coal per kWh of electricity
generated, when compared with less efficient
subcritical coal-fired electricity generation (IEA,
2013c). In addition to lowering possible LCOEs
with HELE electricity generation, increasing the
efficiency of CFPPs also reduces GHG emissions,
as well as air pollutants including SOx and NOx per
kWh of electricity generation. In order to witness
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