Figure 1 . World Total Primary Energy Supply ( IEA , 2014 )
production in North America , driven by upstream technologies that are unlocking light and tight oil and shale gas resources , is stimulating economic activities and shaping the role of North America as a major energy exporter in global energy trade .
While global energy demand is expected to grow by 37 % by 2040 , growth slows markedly , from above 2 % per year up until 2025 , but declines to 1 % per year after that . This is the result of both price and policy effects , and a structural shift in the global economy towards services and lighter industrial sectors . The global distribution of energy demand is shown in Figure 1 . In the early 2030s , China will become the largest oil-consuming country , crossing paths with the United States , where oil consumption falls back to levels not seen for decades . But , it is India , Southeast Asia , the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa that will take over as the engines of global energy demand growth .
By 2040 , the world ’ s energy supply mix is made up of almost four equal parts , i . e . oil , gas , coal and low-carbon sources ( IEA , WEO 2014 ). While resources are not expected to be a constraint over this period , each of these faces a distinct set of challenges . Policy choices and market developments that bring the share of fossil fuels in primary energy demand down to just under threequarters in 2040 are not enough to stem the rise in energy-related carbon dioxide ( CO 2
) emissions , which is expected to grow by one-fifth .
Post 2015 will be critical for global energy markets as countries around the world address challenges related to burgeoning energy consumption , and security of energy supply in a sustainable manner to address environmental effects . The 2015 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ( UNFCCC ) Conference of Parties ( COP21 ) in Paris set objectives for reaching an international agreement on addressing climate change . As such , 2015 is a crucial time to improve policy frameworks for encouraging responsible energy consumption , higher efficiency , and international standards for emissions , while supporting the growth of energy markets and ensuring security of supply .
ASEAN Energy Development
Since the signing of the 1986 Agreement on ASEAN Energy Co-operation , the ASEAN leaders have expressed their strong support to advance ASEAN energy connectivity , an important issue that ASEAN must address , especially given the growing demand for energy in the region . They expressed their support for regional energy connectivity projects such as the APG and the TAGP and provided instructions to look into the next level of details , and seriously consider how to harmonise regulatory frameworks and standards to facilitate regional energy connectivity . The
61