Ingenieur July-Sept 2016 Ingenieur July-Sept 2016 | Page 43

energy export , growing from 447.2 Mtoe in 1990 to 739.7 in 2012 . Overall , however , the Asia-Pacific region became a net TPES importer in 2007 , and in the next five years , the net TPES imports for the region increased to 385.5 Mtoe in 2012 .
Impact of fluctuating oil prices differentiated
Due to the extraordinary economic growth in recent decades , energy demand for the Asia- Pacific region has risen significantly , and it is expected to grow continuously in the foreseeable future . Fossil fuels have been and will continue to be the major energy source in the region , accounting for more than 60 % of the total final energy consumption ( ESCAP , 2014 ). The soaring energy demand , plus unevenly distributed fossil fuel reserves in the region , make many developing countries dependent on imported fossil fuels and therefore expose them to energy price volatility in the international market .
Many developing countries dependent on imported fossil fuels
By early 2015 , international oil prices declined dramatically by 47 % although it has rebounded since February ( EIA , 2015 ). Because of combined consequences of slowing growth in major economies and steadily declining oil intensity and expected weak growth in 2015 , relatively low oil prices may persist . The overall impact of falling oil prices will depend on the nature of oil-dependence ( oil-importing or oil-exporting ) of national economies . The Asian Development Bank ( ADB ) estimated that net oil importers in the region could see an additional 0.5 % growth in 2015 GDP if oil prices remain low ( ADB , 2014 ). The low oil prices also lowered inflation rates and presented opportunities for importers such as Indonesia and India to reform their programmes on fuel subsidies ( ADB , 2014 ). It also provided a good opportunity for high-subsidy countries to adjust policies on fossil fuels . For oil-exporting countries , such as the Russian Federation and other Central Asia countries , growth would be negatively impacted depending on the role of the energy sector in the national economy .
Oil price fluctuations have significant macroeconomic , financial and policy implications . They support economic activity and reduce inflationary , external and fiscal pressures for oil-importing countries , but affect oil-exporting countries adversely by weakening fiscal and external positions and reducing economic activity ( World Bank , 2015 ). They also provide a significant opportunity to reform energy taxes and fuel subsidies , as well as reinvigorating reforms to diversify oil-reliant economies .
Integration of Renewable Energy in Electricity Systems
The power generation sector continues to evolve , specifically with regard to effectively integrating an increased share of renewable energy and variable renewable energy ( VRE ) within the electricity mix .
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Renewable energy share of electricity production in Asia and the Pacific increased from 666 terawatt-hours ( TWh ) in 1990 to 1,869TWh in 2012 , representing 17 % of the 2012 electricity mix within the region ( ESCAP , 2015 ).
● ● VRE share of electricity production in Asia and the Pacific increased from less than 38 GWh in 1990 to nearly 164,000 GWh ( 164 TWh ) in 2012 , representing 1.5 % of the 2012 electricity mix within the region ( ESCAP , 2015 ).
● ● Globally , share of VRE sources within the electricity mix have risen from 0.04 % of electricity production in 1990 to 2.8 % in 2012 ( ESCAP , 2015 ). The cost-competitiveness of VRE for power generation has reached historic levels , approaching parity with fossil fuel generation .
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Solar photovoltaic ( solar PV ) module prices in 2014 were 75 % lower than their levels at the end of 2009 while wind turbine prices
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