Part 4: A look ahead
The one bonus rule
might lead to other
reward systems
through gamification
or a different type of
side game”
Kristoffer Lindström,
Redeye
market entrants, we should expect
the Swedish market opening to give
another kick to M&A.
“I think the more established
names will be the winners, as it will
be harder for smaller operators
to bear the costs, which will likely
continue to drive the ongoing
consolidation,” he says. “One winner
will be the platform providers
as operators will be utilising the
platform’s licence, as it will be
costly to have one of their own.”
The more established brands
obviously agree with this analysis.
“In general, I think we will see a less
volatile market long term where
strong brands will be even stronger,”
says Kärrbrink from Mr Green.
Perhaps somewhat
controversially – given the mixed
history of media brands entering
the gaming space in other
jurisdictions — Tsachi Maimon, the
chief executive at Aspire Global,
believes that media brands will be
among those that will benefit from
the new opportunities.
“Definite winners are going to be
the media houses,” he says. “(They)
have media assets they can utilise
22
and by sending their traffic to their
own brand, they can become big
players in the market.”
EveryMatrix’s Funch agrees.
“There will be local media
companies who might go for a
licence, which also happened in
Denmark, and maybe a few publicly
listed operators who have been
waiting for this regulation,” he says.
But he doesn’t believe too many
new names will be popping up.
“I don’t expect to see many
names in the new regulated market
compared to the current Swedish
market, basically because it is
already being targeted by such a
broad number of operators.”
Svenska Spel’s future
Of course, another big winner is
likely to be Svenska Spel. If we look
to Denmark for an example of what
might happen then the prognosis
looks good for the former
monopoly. Although Danske Spil’s
share did drop from an initial 37%,
it has stabilised recently at just over
30%. But considering the market as
a whole has grown by 150% since
opening up in 2012, Danske Spil
has certainly benefited enormously
from regulation.
“When the Danish state
operator, Danske Spil entered the
online casino market back in 2012
it had significant impact in terms of
attracting a broader target group
and creating a broader public
acceptance of online casino,” says
Funch at EveryMatrix.
Its rivals are certainly optimistic
about Svenska Spel’s chances
of maintaining a good position
in the newly regulated market.
Jackpotjoy’s Flynn says that
both brand awareness and game
awareness with regard to casino
are high in Sweden. “The change
in regulation will allow the current
operators like Svenska Spel,
Folkspel, Miljonlotteriet and ATG to
offer casino games,” he says. “That
could be an interesting challenge
for the market.”
“I think we will see a spike
directly after the new regulation
when Svenska Spel will get a
licence for online casino,” says
Kärrbrink from Mr Green. “This will
drive new players trying online
casino. We saw the same when
Svenska Spel got its poker licence
back in 2007.”
As we have discussed, the poker
example is clearly problematic –
launching a product into a protected
market clearly offers no comparison
to fighting in an open market – but
the advantages of brand recognition
and player base will likely see
Svenska Spel managing to hold its
own come January.
But at least, as Funch points out,
the competition will be playing
– somewhat – on a level footing
with the monopoly. “Svenska Spel
Sweden: The transition to regulation in one of Europe’s most advanced digital markets