Part 2: The current online market
respectively.
888 is also strong in the region,
although it does not break down
its revenues regionally, while as
with everywhere else Stars Group
dominates the (still popular)
Swedish poker market, having
somewhat vanquished the threat
from Svenska Spel (see part three
for more analysis on this).
As for further market entrants,
there is more than a suggestion
that any potential regulated market
competitors from outside of the
region are already present within
the market.
Asked whether he envisaged
some new entrants from further
afield, Erik Skarp, chief executive at
Bethard, says that if he had to bet
on it he would say no. “The main
reason for that is that Sweden is a
forerunner in terms of digitalisation
and with that said a lot of the
revenue has already gone online.”
David Flynn, chief executive for
operations at Jackpotjoy, somewhat
agrees, although he doesn’t rule
out some new entrants. “I think
the vast majority will come from
existing players,” he says. “But there
is always room for a new entrant,
backed by an innovative campaign
and product.”
This sentiment is echoed by
Jesper Kärrbrink, chief executive
at Mr Green. “There are some
international large brands that have
poor representation in the Swedish
market today and I would be
surprised if they don’t enter after
the (new) regulation,” he says.
Market share estimates
Basing on our calculations around
the estimates for Svenska Spel
online and its own estimates for
the size of the grey market, we
have then channelled our above
estimates for Swedish revenues into
our market share estimates for 2017.
Obviously, there are reasonably
wide margins of error caveats
around all these figures, but as a
guide it does give a good idea of
the size of the online gambling
opportunity in Sweden.
When it comes to product splits,
as mentioned above, Sweden is
likely slightly more casino and
gaming-focused than other
markets. Estimates from Lindström
at Redeye suggest the below splits
for the current grey market only.
Bethard’s Erik Skarp
does not envisage
many new entrants
from further afield,
the main reason
being that “Sweden is
a forerunner in terms
of digitalisation and a
lot of the revenue has
already gone online
16
Sweden: The transition to regulation in one of Europe’s most advanced digital markets